Hubei Key Laboratory of Construction and Management in Hydropower Engineering, China Three Gorges University, Yichang, Hubei Province, China.
College of Economics & Management, China Three Gorges University, Yichang, Hubei Province, China.
PLoS One. 2021 Mar 4;16(3):e0247604. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0247604. eCollection 2021.
Climate change, population growth, the development of industrialization and urbanization are increasing the demand for water resources, but the water pollution is reducing the limited water supply. In recent years, the gap between water supply and demand which shows water scarcity situation is becoming more serious. Clear knowing this gap and its main driving factors could help us to put forward water protection measures correctly. We take the data of Huaihe River Basin from 2001 to 2016 as an example and use ecological water footprint to describe the demand, with the water carrying capacity representing the supply. We analyze the water supply-demand situation of Huaihe River Basin and its five provinces from footprint view in time and space. Then we apply the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index model to analyze the driving factors of the ecological water footprint. The results show that: (1) the supply and demand balance of Huaihe River Basin was only achieved in year 2003 and 2005. There is also a large difference between Jiangsu province and other provinces in Huaihe River basin, most years in Jiangsu province per capital ecological footprint of water is more than 1 hm2/person except the years of 2003, 2015, and 2016. But other provinces are all less than 1 hm2/person. (2) Through the decomposition of water demand drivers, we concluded that economic development is the most important factor, with an annual contribution of more than 60%. Our study provides countermeasures and suggestions for the management and optimal allocation of water resources in Huaihe River Basin, and also provides reference for the formulation of water-saving policies in the world.
气候变化、人口增长、工业化和城市化的发展正在增加对水资源的需求，但水污染却在减少有限的水资源供应。近年来，供水量与需水量之间的差距——即水资源短缺状况——变得更加严重。明确这一差距及其主要驱动因素，有助于我们正确地提出水资源保护措施。我们以 2001 年至 2016 年的淮河流域数据为例，采用生态足迹法来描述需求，以水资源承载能力来表示供给。我们从时间和空间两个方面，从足迹的角度分析了淮河流域及其五省的供用水情况。然后，我们应用对数平均迪氏指数模型分析了生态足迹的驱动因素。结果表明：（1）淮河流域的供需平衡仅在 2003 年和 2005 年实现。流域内江苏与其他省份之间也存在较大差异，除 2003、2015 和 2016 年外，江苏的人均生态水足迹多年都超过 1 公顷/人，而其他省份均低于 1 公顷/人。（2）通过对需水驱动因素的分解，我们得出结论，经济发展是最重要的因素，其年贡献率超过 60%。本研究为淮河流域水资源管理和优化配置提供了对策和建议，也为世界范围内节水政策的制定提供了参考。
