College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2020 Dec 11;17(24):9289. doi: 10.3390/ijerph17249289.
With the rapid development of society and the economy, the demand for water resources is increasing. This, combined with the increasing competition for water resources between current and future generations, hinders the sustainable development of society. To alleviate prominent water resources problems, achieve sustainable utilization of water resources and the sustainable development of society and economy, a multi-objective optimal water resources allocation model is proposed, in which different water sources and different water departments are considered to achieve the maximum social and economic benefits of the study area on the premise of water resources sustainability. To meet the needs of future generations, the discount value is introduced to measure intergenerational equity. A case study from seven cities in the upper and middle reaches of the Huaihe River Basin is given to verify the practicality and viability of the model. The non-dominated sorting Genetic Algorithms-2(NSGA-2) was used to find optimal water resources allocation schemes in 2020 and 2050 under the condition of a hydrological drought year (inflow guarantee rate = 75%). Compared with previous models, the intergenerational equity model considers the sustainability of water resources, has higher social and economic benefits, and ensures the fair distribution of water resources among generations. According to the results, under balanced weight, the water shortage ratio of the seven cities will decrease from 5.24% in 2050 to 1.58% in 2020, and the economic benefit will increase from 79.46(10CNY) to 168.3(10CNY), respectively. In addition, the discount value of economic benefit in 2050 is 80.23(10CNY), which is still higher than that in 2020. This shows that the water resource allocation scheme can eliminate the disparity between supply and demand for water resources and achieve intergenerational equity. Therefore, the intergenerational equity model can alleviate the contradiction of water resources and realize intergenerational equity.
随着社会和经济的快速发展,对水资源的需求不断增加。这一现象加上当前和未来几代人之间对水资源的竞争日益激烈,阻碍了社会的可持续发展。为了缓解突出的水资源问题,实现水资源的可持续利用以及社会和经济的可持续发展,提出了一个多目标最优水资源配置模型,该模型考虑了不同的水源和不同的水利部门,旨在在水资源可持续性的前提下,实现研究区域的最大社会效益和经济效益。为了满足后代的需求,引入贴现值来衡量代际公平。通过对淮河流域中上游七个城市的案例研究,验证了模型的实用性和可行性。在水文干旱年(保证率 = 75%)条件下,使用非支配排序遗传算法-2(NSGA-2)找到了 2020 年和 2050 年的最优水资源配置方案。与以前的模型相比,代际公平模型考虑了水资源的可持续性,具有更高的社会效益和经济效益,并且保证了水资源在代际之间的公平分配。根据结果,在均衡权重下,七个城市的缺水率将从 2050 年的 5.24%下降到 2020 年的 1.58%,经济效益将从 79.46(10 元人民币)增加到 168.3(10 元人民币)。此外,2050 年的经济利益贴现值为 80.23(10 元人民币),仍高于 2020 年的贴现值。这表明水资源配置方案可以消除水资源供需之间的差距,实现代际公平。因此,代际公平模型可以缓解水资源矛盾,实现代际公平。