School of Economics, Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, Jiangxi, China.
PLoS One. 2021 Mar 4;16(3):e0248078. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0248078. eCollection 2021.
The research on rural population distribution from a climate perspective is rare. Therefore, this study adopts this perspective and uses the ordinary least squares and spatial econometric models to explore the spatial distribution characteristics of the rural population in the Poyang Lake ecological economic zone. Results show that (1) a significant spatial autocorrelation is present in the distribution of rural population, and a spatial correlation exists between the population distribution and climatic factors, (2) the influence of climatic factors on the distribution of rural population in the Poyang Lake ecological economic zone is greater than that of economic factors, and (3) the annual average sunshine and annual average rainfall have a significant negative effect on the distribution of the regional rural population, which is contrary to the expectations., so we then analyze this negative effect on the regional rural population distribution. It is found that (1) the influence of climate factors on the distribution of rural population in lake area is far more than that of economic factors, and more consideration should be given to the influence of climate factors on the population distribution in the lake area, (2) different geographical capital and natural resource endowment, the influence of climate on micro-regional population distribution may be different from the general law, (3) the spatial measurement model which takes spatial dependence into account can reveal the influence of climate on rural population distribution more accurately.
从气候角度研究农村人口分布的研究很少。因此，本研究采用这一视角，运用普通最小二乘法和空间计量经济学模型，探讨鄱阳湖生态经济区农村人口的空间分布特征。结果表明：（1）农村人口分布存在显著的空间自相关，人口分布与气候因素之间存在空间相关性；（2）气候因素对鄱阳湖生态经济区农村人口分布的影响大于经济因素；（3）年平均日照和年平均降雨量对区域农村人口分布有显著的负向影响，这与预期相反，因此我们进一步分析了这种负向影响对区域农村人口分布的作用。研究发现：（1）气候因素对湖区农村人口分布的影响远大于经济因素，在湖区人口分布中应更多考虑气候因素的影响；（2）不同的地理资本和自然资源禀赋，气候对微观区域人口分布的影响可能与一般规律不同；（3）考虑空间依赖性的空间计量模型可以更准确地揭示气候对农村人口分布的影响。
