Spiecker Eliane Maria, Mincoff Barbanti Patrícia Costa, Egger Paulo Acácio, de Barros Carvalho Maria Dalva, Pelloso Sandra Marisa, Rovery de Souza Marta, de Andrade Luciano, Staton Catherine A, Alves Marcia Lorena, Menezes de Souza Eniuce, Pedroso Raíssa Bocchi, Nickenig Vissoci João Ricardo
Postgraduate Program in Health Sciences, State University of Maringá, 5790 Colombo Ave, 87020-900, Maringá, Paraná, Brazil.
Department of Public Health, Federal University of Goiás, Esperança Ave, 74690-900, Goiânia, GO, Brazil.
SSM Popul Health. 2021 Feb 13;13:100754. doi: 10.1016/j.ssmph.2021.100754. eCollection 2021 Mar.
Global suicide rates have increased in recent decades becoming a serious social and public health problem. In Brazil, rates have been increasing annually. We aimed to analyze the correlation between suicide mortality rates and global economic and political crisis periods of 2008 and 2014 in Brazil. The analysis of suicide mortality in Brazil was done using a time-series segmented linear regression model that estimated the trend of rates over time. To obtain the model, changes in the trend of both abrupt and gradual suicide rates were investigated. The results indicate statistically significant changes showing an upward trend of suicide rates during the world economic crisis (2008-2013) and during the economic and political crisis in Brazil (2014-2017) compared to previous periods, especially at the extremes of schooling (3 < years and > 8 years). Among white and parda, there were significant trend rates increases in both periods and in different regions. In the Northeast and South regions, we observed a significant increase in the trend rate for males after the Brazilian economic and political crisis (2014 to 2017). We can conclude that the national suicide rates were influenced by the economic and political instability that our country has been going through since 2008, affecting each region differently. Further studies are needed to explore the reasons for interregional differences and the relation of suicide with unemployment rates and possible economic predictors.
近几十年来，全球自杀率呈上升趋势，成为一个严重的社会和公共卫生问题。在巴西，自杀率也逐年上升。我们旨在分析2008年和2014年巴西自杀死亡率与全球经济和政治危机时期之间的相关性。巴西自杀死亡率的分析采用了时间序列分段线性回归模型，该模型估计了自杀率随时间的变化趋势。为了获得该模型，研究了自杀率突然和逐渐变化的趋势。结果表明，与之前的时期相比，在世界经济危机期间（2008 - 2013年）以及巴西经济和政治危机期间（2014 - 2017年），自杀率呈现出显著的上升趋势，尤其是在受教育程度极端的人群中（3年以下和8年以上）。在白人和混血人种中，这两个时期以及不同地区的自杀率趋势都有显著上升。在东北部和南部地区，我们观察到巴西经济和政治危机（2014年至2017年）后男性自杀率趋势显著上升。我们可以得出结论，自2008年以来，巴西经历的经济和政治不稳定影响了全国自杀率，且对不同地区的影响有所不同。需要进一步研究来探讨地区间差异的原因以及自杀与失业率和可能的经济预测因素之间的关系。
