School of Public Economics and Administration, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, Shanghai, China.
Institute of Industrial Economics, Jiangxi University of Finance & Economics, Nanchang, China.
PLoS One. 2021 Mar 10;16(3):e0248138. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0248138. eCollection 2021.
There are a few existing studies on whether domestic migration improves China's pension system's fiscal sustainability in the context of rapid urbanization and industrialization. In this paper, we systematically investigate the impact of migration on the solvency of the worker's old-age insurance for urban employees by constructing actuarial and econometric models. We use panel data from 2002 to 2018, collected from 31 provinces in China. The results show that the association between migration and the solvency of pensions is an inverted-U shape along the urbanization process. Further regional comparison showed that the above-stated inverted-U curve is more pronounced in the central and western regions. We also established that the number of participants and the contribution base are the main contributors to these results. Our conclusions are important for future population policies and public pension systems in China.
在中国快速城市化和工业化的背景下，关于国内移民是否会改善中国养老金制度的财政可持续性，已经有一些现有研究。本文通过构建精算和计量经济学模型，系统地研究了移民对城镇职工基本养老保险偿付能力的影响。我们使用了 2002 年至 2018 年来自中国 31 个省的面板数据。结果表明，移民与养老金偿付能力之间的关系是城市化进程中倒 U 型的。进一步的区域比较表明，上述倒 U 型曲线在中部和西部地区更为明显。我们还发现，参保人数和缴费基数是导致这一结果的主要因素。我们的结论对中国未来的人口政策和公共养老金制度具有重要意义。
