School of Business, Hunan University of Science and Technology, Xiangtan, China.
PLoS One. 2023 Jul 17;18(7):e0288754. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0288754. eCollection 2023.
The sustainability of social pension insurance is of great significance in guaranteeing the essential life of the elderly and promoting social stability. Based on the provincial panel data from 2012 to 2020, this study uses non-spatial measurement methods, ArcGIS visualization research methods, and geographic detectors to study the regional differences in China's pension fund balances and the underlying influencing factors. Compared with the traditional way of establishing regression equations to explore the correlation of influencing factors, geographic detectors can quantify the strength of each influencing factor and detect the interaction of different influencing factors. This study found that: First, the growth rate of China's overall pension fund balances has been declining yearly, with the fastest decline in northeast China, the middle in the Western and Central regions of China, and the slowest decline in Eastern China. Second, the spatial distribution of pension fund balances shows agglomeration characteristics, with high-value areas mainly distributed in Eastern China and low-value regions distributed primarily in Western and Northeastern China. Third, the overall Theil index for pension fund balances is trending down, but the Theil index for the Eastern region is on the rise. Fourth, seven factors, including the working-age population, the population aged 65 and above, and regional GDP, are the main factors that lead to regional differences in the balance of urban and rural residential insurance funds. Finally, the superimposed effects of each element are reflected in double-factor enhancement or non-linear enhancement relation.
社会养老保险的可持续性对于保障老年人的基本生活和促进社会稳定具有重要意义。本研究基于 2012 年至 2020 年的省级面板数据，运用非空间测量方法、ArcGIS 可视化研究方法和地理探测器，研究了中国养老金结余的区域差异及其潜在影响因素。与传统的建立回归方程探索影响因素相关性的方法相比，地理探测器可以量化每个影响因素的强度，并检测不同影响因素之间的相互作用。本研究发现：首先，中国养老金结余的增长率呈逐年下降趋势，其中东北下降最快，中西部分次之，东部最慢。其次，养老金结余的空间分布呈现集聚特征，高值区主要分布在东部，低值区主要分布在西部和东北。第三，养老金结余的总体泰尔指数呈下降趋势，但东部地区的泰尔指数呈上升趋势。第四，劳动年龄人口、65 岁及以上人口和地区 GDP 等七个因素是导致城乡居民养老保险基金结余区域差异的主要因素。最后，各要素的叠加效应体现在双重增强或非线性增强关系中。
