Department of Applied Health Research, University College London, London, United Kingdom.
Division of Surgery and Interventional Science, University College London, London, United Kingdom.
JAMA Netw Open. 2021 Mar 1;4(3):e2037657. doi: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2020.37657.
IMPORTANCE: If magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) mitigates overdiagnosis of prostate cancer while improving the detection of clinically significant cases, including MRI in a screening program for prostate cancer could be considered. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the benefit-harm profiles and cost-effectiveness associated with MRI before biopsy compared with biopsy-first screening for prostate cancer using age-based and risk-stratified screening strategies. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This decision analytical model used a life-table approach and was conducted between December 2019 and July 2020. A hypothetical cohort of 4.48 million men in England aged 55 to 69 years were analyzed and followed-up to 90 years of age. EXPOSURES: No screening, age-based screening, and risk-stratified screening in the hypothetical cohort. Age-based screening consisted of screening every 4 years with prostate-specific antigen between the ages of 55 and 69 years. Risk-stratified screening used age and polygenic risk profiles. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The benefit-harm profile (deaths from prostate cancer, quality-adjusted life-years, overdiagnosis, and biopsies) and cost-effectiveness (net monetary benefit, from a health care system perspective) were analyzed. Both age-based and risk-stratified screening were evaluated using a biopsy-first and an MRI-first diagnostic pathway. Results were derived from probabilistic analyses and were discounted at 3.5% per annum. RESULTS: The hypothetical cohort included 4.48 million men in England, ranging in age from 55 to 69 years (median, 62 years). Compared with biopsy-first age-based screening, MRI-first age-based screening was associated with 0.9% (1368; 95% uncertainty interval [UI], 1370-1409) fewer deaths from prostate cancer, 14.9% (12 370; 95% UI, 11 100-13 670) fewer overdiagnoses, and 33.8% (650 500; 95% UI, 463 200-907 000) fewer biopsies. At 10-year absolute risk thresholds of 2% and 10%, MRI-first risk-stratified screening was associated with between 10.4% (7335; 95% UI, 6630-8098) and 72.6% (51 250; 95% UI, 46 070-56 890) fewer overdiagnosed cancers, respectively, and between 21.7% fewer MRIs (412 100; 95% UI, 411 400-412 900) and 53.5% fewer biopsies (1 016 000; 95% UI, 1 010 000-1 022 000), respectively, compared with MRI-first age-based screening. The most cost-effective strategies at willingness-to-pay thresholds of £20 000 (US $26 000) and £30 000 (US $39 000) per quality-adjusted life-year gained were MRI-first risk-stratified screening at 10-year absolute risk thresholds of 8.5% and 7.5%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this decision analytical model of a hypothetical cohort, an MRI-first diagnostic pathway was associated with an improvement in the benefit-harm profile and cost-effectiveness of screening for prostate cancer compared with biopsy-first screening. These improvements were greater when using risk-stratified screening based on age and polygenic risk profile and may warrant prospective evaluation.
重要性:如果磁共振成像(MRI)可以减轻前列腺癌的过度诊断,同时提高对包括 MRI 在内的临床显著病例的检测能力,那么在前列腺癌筛查计划中考虑使用 MRI 可能是合理的。 目的:评估与活检先行筛查相比,基于年龄和风险分层的筛查策略,在前列腺癌筛查前使用 MRI 的获益-危害状况和成本效益。 设计、地点和参与者:本决策分析模型采用寿命表法,于 2019 年 12 月至 2020 年 7 月进行。对英国 448 万 55 至 69 岁的假设队列进行分析,并随访至 90 岁。 暴露:无筛查、基于年龄的筛查和风险分层筛查。基于年龄的筛查是指在 55 至 69 岁之间每 4 年进行一次前列腺特异性抗原筛查。风险分层筛查使用年龄和多基因风险评分。 主要结果和测量:分析获益-危害状况(前列腺癌死亡、质量调整生命年、过度诊断和活检)和成本效益(从医疗保健系统角度来看的净货币收益)。两种基于年龄和风险分层的筛查均采用活检先行和 MRI 先行的诊断途径进行评估。结果来自概率分析,并按每年 3.5%贴现。 结果:假设队列包括 448 万英国男性,年龄在 55 至 69 岁之间(中位数 62 岁)。与活检先行的年龄分层筛查相比,MRI 先行的年龄分层筛查导致前列腺癌死亡减少 0.9%(1368;95%置信区间 [CI],1370-1409),过度诊断减少 14.9%(12370;95%CI,11100-13670),活检减少 33.8%(650500;95%CI,463200-907000)。在 10 年绝对风险阈值为 2%和 10%的情况下,MRI 先行的风险分层筛查分别与 10.4%(7335;95%CI,6630-8098)和 72.6%(51250;95%CI,46070-56890)的过度诊断癌症减少有关,与 MRI 先行的年龄分层筛查相比,MRI 减少 21.7%(412100;95%CI,411400-412900),活检减少 53.5%(1016000;95%CI,1010000-1022000)。在愿意支付的阈值为 20000 英镑(26000 美元)和 30000 英镑(39000 美元)时,最具成本效益的策略是在 10 年绝对风险阈值为 8.5%和 7.5%时进行 MRI 先行的风险分层筛查。 结论和相关性:在这项对假设队列的决策分析模型中,与活检先行筛查相比,MRI 先行诊断途径在前列腺癌筛查的获益-危害状况和成本效益方面有所改善。当使用基于年龄和多基因风险评分的风险分层筛查时,这些改善更大,可能需要前瞻性评估。
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