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基于年龄和风险分层的前列腺癌筛查中,活检前进行磁共振成像的获益、危害和成本效益。

Benefit, Harm, and Cost-effectiveness Associated With Magnetic Resonance Imaging Before Biopsy in Age-based and Risk-stratified Screening for Prostate Cancer.

机构信息

Department of Applied Health Research, University College London, London, United Kingdom.

Division of Surgery and Interventional Science, University College London, London, United Kingdom.

出版信息

JAMA Netw Open. 2021 Mar 1;4(3):e2037657. doi: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2020.37657.


DOI:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2020.37657
PMID:33704474
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7953309/
Abstract

IMPORTANCE: If magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) mitigates overdiagnosis of prostate cancer while improving the detection of clinically significant cases, including MRI in a screening program for prostate cancer could be considered. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the benefit-harm profiles and cost-effectiveness associated with MRI before biopsy compared with biopsy-first screening for prostate cancer using age-based and risk-stratified screening strategies. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This decision analytical model used a life-table approach and was conducted between December 2019 and July 2020. A hypothetical cohort of 4.48 million men in England aged 55 to 69 years were analyzed and followed-up to 90 years of age. EXPOSURES: No screening, age-based screening, and risk-stratified screening in the hypothetical cohort. Age-based screening consisted of screening every 4 years with prostate-specific antigen between the ages of 55 and 69 years. Risk-stratified screening used age and polygenic risk profiles. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The benefit-harm profile (deaths from prostate cancer, quality-adjusted life-years, overdiagnosis, and biopsies) and cost-effectiveness (net monetary benefit, from a health care system perspective) were analyzed. Both age-based and risk-stratified screening were evaluated using a biopsy-first and an MRI-first diagnostic pathway. Results were derived from probabilistic analyses and were discounted at 3.5% per annum. RESULTS: The hypothetical cohort included 4.48 million men in England, ranging in age from 55 to 69 years (median, 62 years). Compared with biopsy-first age-based screening, MRI-first age-based screening was associated with 0.9% (1368; 95% uncertainty interval [UI], 1370-1409) fewer deaths from prostate cancer, 14.9% (12 370; 95% UI, 11 100-13 670) fewer overdiagnoses, and 33.8% (650 500; 95% UI, 463 200-907 000) fewer biopsies. At 10-year absolute risk thresholds of 2% and 10%, MRI-first risk-stratified screening was associated with between 10.4% (7335; 95% UI, 6630-8098) and 72.6% (51 250; 95% UI, 46 070-56 890) fewer overdiagnosed cancers, respectively, and between 21.7% fewer MRIs (412 100; 95% UI, 411 400-412 900) and 53.5% fewer biopsies (1 016 000; 95% UI, 1 010 000-1 022 000), respectively, compared with MRI-first age-based screening. The most cost-effective strategies at willingness-to-pay thresholds of £20 000 (US $26 000) and £30 000 (US $39 000) per quality-adjusted life-year gained were MRI-first risk-stratified screening at 10-year absolute risk thresholds of 8.5% and 7.5%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this decision analytical model of a hypothetical cohort, an MRI-first diagnostic pathway was associated with an improvement in the benefit-harm profile and cost-effectiveness of screening for prostate cancer compared with biopsy-first screening. These improvements were greater when using risk-stratified screening based on age and polygenic risk profile and may warrant prospective evaluation.

摘要

重要性:如果磁共振成像(MRI)可以减轻前列腺癌的过度诊断,同时提高对包括 MRI 在内的临床显著病例的检测能力,那么在前列腺癌筛查计划中考虑使用 MRI 可能是合理的。 目的:评估与活检先行筛查相比,基于年龄和风险分层的筛查策略,在前列腺癌筛查前使用 MRI 的获益-危害状况和成本效益。 设计、地点和参与者:本决策分析模型采用寿命表法,于 2019 年 12 月至 2020 年 7 月进行。对英国 448 万 55 至 69 岁的假设队列进行分析,并随访至 90 岁。 暴露:无筛查、基于年龄的筛查和风险分层筛查。基于年龄的筛查是指在 55 至 69 岁之间每 4 年进行一次前列腺特异性抗原筛查。风险分层筛查使用年龄和多基因风险评分。 主要结果和测量:分析获益-危害状况(前列腺癌死亡、质量调整生命年、过度诊断和活检)和成本效益(从医疗保健系统角度来看的净货币收益)。两种基于年龄和风险分层的筛查均采用活检先行和 MRI 先行的诊断途径进行评估。结果来自概率分析,并按每年 3.5%贴现。 结果:假设队列包括 448 万英国男性,年龄在 55 至 69 岁之间(中位数 62 岁)。与活检先行的年龄分层筛查相比,MRI 先行的年龄分层筛查导致前列腺癌死亡减少 0.9%(1368;95%置信区间 [CI],1370-1409),过度诊断减少 14.9%(12370;95%CI,11100-13670),活检减少 33.8%(650500;95%CI,463200-907000)。在 10 年绝对风险阈值为 2%和 10%的情况下,MRI 先行的风险分层筛查分别与 10.4%(7335;95%CI,6630-8098)和 72.6%(51250;95%CI,46070-56890)的过度诊断癌症减少有关,与 MRI 先行的年龄分层筛查相比,MRI 减少 21.7%(412100;95%CI,411400-412900),活检减少 53.5%(1016000;95%CI,1010000-1022000)。在愿意支付的阈值为 20000 英镑(26000 美元)和 30000 英镑(39000 美元)时,最具成本效益的策略是在 10 年绝对风险阈值为 8.5%和 7.5%时进行 MRI 先行的风险分层筛查。 结论和相关性:在这项对假设队列的决策分析模型中,与活检先行筛查相比,MRI 先行诊断途径在前列腺癌筛查的获益-危害状况和成本效益方面有所改善。当使用基于年龄和多基因风险评分的风险分层筛查时,这些改善更大,可能需要前瞻性评估。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/1a17/7953309/0a4de415019b/jamanetwopen-e2037657-g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/1a17/7953309/44ab0fb69178/jamanetwopen-e2037657-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/1a17/7953309/0a4de415019b/jamanetwopen-e2037657-g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/1a17/7953309/44ab0fb69178/jamanetwopen-e2037657-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/1a17/7953309/0a4de415019b/jamanetwopen-e2037657-g002.jpg

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[5]
Early economic evaluation of magnetic resonance imaging for prostate cancer detection in primary care.

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[6]
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BMJ. 2024-9-4

[7]
Systematic Review on the Cost Effectiveness of Prostate Cancer Screening in Europe.

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[8]
Polygenic risk-stratified screening for nasopharyngeal carcinoma in high-risk endemic areas of China: a cost-effectiveness study.

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[9]
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[10]
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本文引用的文献

[1]
The Four-Kallikrein Panel Is Effective in Identifying Aggressive Prostate Cancer in a Multiethnic Population.

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[2]
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Polygenic risk-tailored screening for prostate cancer: A benefit-harm and cost-effectiveness modelling study.

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JAMA Oncol. 2018-11-1

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