Department of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, No. 689 Hua Dian Road, Baoding, 071003, Hebei, China.
Beijing Key Laboratory of New Energy and Low-Carbon Development, North China Electric Power University, Chang Ping District, Beijing, 102206, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2021 Jul;28(27):36611-36625. doi: 10.1007/s11356-021-13129-9. Epub 2021 Mar 11.
Recognizing the process and identifying the drivers of energy-related CO emissions can provide suggestions for designing carbon emission reduction paths, and then promote the further reduction of carbon emission. In this paper, the carbon emissions in China and its subordinate provinces during 2005-2017 are firstly divided into four stages, named S1, S2, S3, and S4. The results show that China has just entered the S3, and it is impossible to reach the peak of energy-related CO emissions with steady economic growth before 2030. Then, three-layer LMDI is utilized to explore the drivers of CO emissions, and the impact of urbanization which is separated from the population is considered innovatively. The economic development increases CO emissions, while the other drivers have diverse effects, which may be positive or negative, on carbon emissions in different regions. Therefore, four emission reduction paths with provincial characteristics should be followed in the future: (i) three provinces, namely, Ningxia, Shaanxi, and Xinjiang, should optimize multiple basic objectives in parallel; (ii) four provinces, such as Inner Mongolia and Hainan, should optimize the energy structure; (iii) six provinces, such as Jiangxi and Hunan, should optimize the industry structure; and (iv) the other provinces should develop new clean energy according to regional conditions.
识别能源相关 CO2 排放的过程和驱动因素，可以为设计碳排放减排路径提供建议，从而进一步推动碳减排。本文首先将中国及其下属省份 2005-2017 年的碳排放量分为 S1、S2、S3 和 S4 四个阶段。结果表明，中国刚刚进入 S3 阶段，在 2030 年之前，不可能在保持经济增长的同时达到能源相关 CO2 排放的峰值。然后，利用三层 LMDI 方法探讨 CO2 排放的驱动因素，并创新性地考虑了将城市化与人口分离的影响。经济发展增加了 CO2 排放，而其他驱动因素对不同地区的碳排放产生了不同的影响，可能是正向的，也可能是负向的。因此，未来应根据各省的特点，采取以下四条具有减排特色的路径：（i）宁夏、陕西和新疆等三个省份应并行优化多个基本目标；（ii）内蒙古和海南等四个省份应优化能源结构；（iii）江西和湖南等六个省份应优化产业结构；以及（iv）其他省份应根据区域条件发展新的清洁能源。
