Shihezi University, Shihezi 832000, China.
Key Laboratory of Southwest China Wildlife Resources Conservation, Ministry of Education, China West Normal University, Nanchong 637009, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022 Aug 29;19(17):10770. doi: 10.3390/ijerph191710770.
Economic development is responsible for excessive sulfur dioxide (SO) emissions, environmental pressure increases, and human and environmental risks. This study used spatial autocorrelation, the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC), and the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index model to study the spatiotemporal variation characteristics and influencing factors of SO emissions in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) from 1997 to 2017. Our results show that the total SO emissions in the YREB rose from 513.14 × 10 t to 974.00 × 10 t before dropping to 321.97 × 10 t. The SO emissions from 11 provinces first increased and then decreased, each with different turning points. For example, the emission trends changed in Yunnan in 2011 and in Anhui in 2015, while the other nine provinces saw their emission trends change during 2005-2006. Furthermore, the SO emissions in the YREB showed a significant agglomeration phenomenon, with a Moran index of approximately 0.233-0.987. Moreover, the EKC of SO emissions and per capita GDP in the YREB was N-shaped. The EKCs of eight of the 11 provinces were N-shaped (Shanghai, Zhejiang, Anhui, Jiangxi, Sichuan, Guizhou, Hunan, and Chongqing) and those of the other three were inverted U-shaped (Jiangsu, Yunnan, and Hubei). Thus, economic development can both promote and inhibit the emission of SO. Finally, during the study period, the technical effect (approximately -1387.97 × 10-130.24 × 10 t) contributed the most, followed by the economic (approximately 27.81 × 10-1255.59 × 10 t), structural (approximately -56.45 × 10-343.90 × 10 t), and population effects (approximately 4.25 × 10-39.70 × 10 t). Technology was the dominant factor in SO emissions reduction, while economic growth played a major role in promoting SO emissions. Therefore, to promote SO emission reduction, technological innovations and advances should be the primary point of focus.
经济发展导致了过多的二氧化硫（SO）排放，增加了环境压力，给人类和环境带来了风险。本研究采用空间自相关、环境库兹涅茨曲线（EKC）和对数平均迪氏指数模型，研究了 1997 年至 2017 年期间长江经济带（YREB）SO 排放的时空变化特征及其影响因素。研究结果表明，YREB 的总 SO 排放量从 513.14×10 t 增加到 974.00×10 t，然后下降到 321.97×10 t。11 个省份的 SO 排放量先增加后减少，每个省份的转折点都不同。例如，云南的排放趋势在 2011 年发生变化，安徽在 2015 年发生变化，而其他 9 个省份的排放趋势则在 2005-2006 年发生变化。此外，YREB 的 SO 排放量存在显著的集聚现象，莫兰指数约为 0.233-0.987。此外，YREB 的 SO 排放与人均 GDP 的环境库兹涅茨曲线呈 N 型。11 个省份中的 8 个（上海、浙江、安徽、江西、四川、贵州、湖南和重庆）的 EKC 呈 N 型，而另外 3 个（江苏、云南和湖北）呈倒 U 型。因此，经济发展既可以促进也可以抑制 SO 的排放。最后，在研究期间，技术效应（约-1387.97×10-130.24×10 t）的贡献最大，其次是经济效应（约 27.81×10-1255.59×10 t）、结构效应（约-56.45×10-343.90×10 t）和人口效应（约 4.25×10-39.70×10 t）。技术是减少 SO 排放的主要因素，而经济增长在促进 SO 排放方面起着主要作用。因此，为了促进 SO 减排，技术创新和进步应该是重点。
