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1990年至2017年中国与北美先天性心脏病死亡率趋势比较

[Comparison of trends in congenital heart disease mortality from 1990 to 2017 between China and North America].

作者信息

Su Z H, Li S J, Chen H W, Zhang H

机构信息

Pediatric Cardiac Surgery Center, Fuwai Hospital, National Center for Cardiovascular Disease, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing 100037, China.

Department of Cardiothoracic surgery, Shanghai Children's Medical Center, Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine; Shanghai Institute of Pediatric Congenital Heart Diseases, National Children's Medical Center, Shanghai 200127, China.

出版信息

Zhonghua Xin Xue Guan Bing Za Zhi. 2021 Mar 24;49(3):269-275. doi: 10.3760/cma.j.cn112148-20200618-00496.

Abstract

To compare trends in congenital heart disease (CHD) mortality between China and North America from 1990 to 2017. Using the data from the Global Burden Of Disease (GBD) study 2017, we analyzed the related indicators of CHD mortality in China and North America from 1990 to 2017, including standardized mortality, number of deaths, age distribution of death population and age-specific mortality of CHD in each birth cohort. Age-period-cohort model was used to calculate the annual percent change of age-standardized and age-specific mortality rates of CHD (% per year), period effect-adjusted age-specific mortality rates, and the relative risk of death among CHD population at different time periods (2000-2004 as reference period) and different birth cohorts (1970 as reference cohort). In 2017, the age-standardized mortality rates for CHD in China and North America were 2.63/100 000 and 1.13/100 000 respectively, a decrease of 50.4% and 49.4% compared to 1990. Of all deaths from CHD in China, 76.8% were found in children under 5 years, which was higher than that in North America (51.7%). For population under 40 years, the period effect-adjusted age-specific mortality was higher in China (0.46-167.94 per 100 000 person-years) than in North America (0.68-22.47 per 100 000 person-years); whereas for population over 40 years, mortality was lower in China (0.13-0.34/100 000 person years) than in North America (0.43-0.72/100 000 person-years).From 1990 to 2017, CHD mortality in China decreased by 1.95% per year. The annual decrease of mortality ranged from 1.95% to 3.64% per year in population under 45 years, but the mortality showed increasing trends among those over 50 years. In 2015-2019, the relative risk of death from CHD decreased by 31% in China and 24% in North America. For 2015 birth cohort, the relative risk of death decreased by 84% in China and by 64% in North America. In the past 30 years, the risk of death from CHD in China has significantly decreased, and the survival gap with North America is dramatically narrowed. However, mortality is higher among younger populations in China than in North America, and the mortality in the elders shows increasing trends each year in China.

摘要

比较1990年至2017年中国与北美洲先天性心脏病(CHD)死亡率的趋势。利用2017年全球疾病负担(GBD)研究的数据,我们分析了1990年至2017年中国和北美洲CHD死亡率的相关指标,包括标准化死亡率、死亡人数、死亡人群的年龄分布以及各出生队列中CHD的年龄别死亡率。采用年龄-时期-队列模型计算CHD年龄标准化死亡率和年龄别死亡率的年变化百分比(每年%)、时期效应调整后的年龄别死亡率,以及不同时间段(以2000 - 2004年为参考期)和不同出生队列(以1970年为参考队列)中CHD人群的死亡相对风险。2017年,中国和北美洲CHD的年龄标准化死亡率分别为2.63/10万和1.13/10万,与1990年相比分别下降了50.4%和49.4%。在中国,所有CHD死亡病例中,76.8%发生在5岁以下儿童,高于北美洲(51.7%)。对于40岁以下人群,中国的时期效应调整后的年龄别死亡率(每10万人年0.46 - 167.94)高于北美洲(每10万人年0.68 - 22.47);而对于40岁以上人群,中国的死亡率(每10万人年0.13 - 0.34)低于北美洲(每10万人年0.43 - 0.72)。1990年至2017年,中国CHD死亡率每年下降1.95%。45岁以下人群死亡率每年下降幅度为1.95%至3.64%,但50岁以上人群死亡率呈上升趋势。在2015 - 2019年,中国CHD死亡的相对风险下降了31%,北美洲下降了24%。对于2015年出生队列,中国死亡相对风险下降了84%,北美洲下降了64%。在过去30年中,中国CHD死亡风险显著下降,与北美洲的生存差距大幅缩小。然而,中国年轻人群的死亡率高于北美洲,且中国老年人的死亡率每年呈上升趋势。

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