Growth differentiation factor-15 predicts major adverse cardiac events and all-cause mortality in patients with atrial fibrillation.

BACKGROUND

Growth-differentiation factor-15 (GDF-15) has recently been described as a potential biomarker for predicting risk of mortality and cardiovascular events in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) but requires validation in clinical practice.

METHODS

The study population consisted of 362 patients (mean age: 71 years, 37% women) with non-valvular AF included in a prospective cohort study. Relationship of GDF-15 with all-cause mortality and major adverse cardiac events (MACE) was analyzed using Cox regression. Survival analysis stratified by GDF-15 was based on national death records, while MACE was recorded at personal follow-up. Further, we evaluated the recently developed GDF-15 based prognostic score towards prediction of all-cause mortality (ABC-death score).

RESULTS

Over a median observation period of 4.3 years, 81 (23.3%) patients died, and over a median personal follow-up of 316 days 47 MACE occurred. GDF-15 was independently associated with all-cause mortality (adjusted HR per double increase 2.33, 95%CI 1.74-3.13) and MACE (adjusted HR per double increase 2.33, 95%CI 1.60-3.39). GDF-15 levels, measured at follow-up, were similarly associated with mortality, and longitudinal measurements of GDF-15 did not significantly differ. Six-year survival probability of patients above vs. below the median GDF-15 level was 44% (95%CI 34-57) and 84% (95%CI 76-93), respectively. The ABC-death score revealed a C-statistic of 0.80.

CONCLUSION

GDF-15 predicts risk of all-cause mortality and MACE in patients with non-valvular AF. Further, the ABC-death score showed good predictive accuracy in a "real-world" cohort. Therefore, introduction of GDF-15 into clinical practice would enhance risk prediction of morbidity and mortality in AF patients.