Score for predicting overall survival in pancreatic adenocarcinoma patients with positive lymph nodes after surgery: a novel nomogram-based risk assessment.

BACKGROUND

Pancreatic adenocarcinoma (PaC) patients with positive lymph nodes (PLNs) have a dismal prognosis and lack a specific prognostic stage. This study aimed to construct a nomogram for the prediction of overall survival (OS) in these patients.

METHODS

A total of 1,340 patients screened from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database were included and randomly divided at a ratio of 7:3 into a training set (n=940) and an internal validation set (n=400). Cox regression analyses were conducted to select independent predictors in the training set, and a nomogram was constructed. The model was verified in the internal validation set and in an external validation set, which comprised 64 patients from a Chinese institute.

RESULTS

Six independent prognostic factors (age at diagnosis, tumor grade, lymph node ratio, T stage, radiotherapy, and chemotherapy) were identified in PaC patients with PLNs and were entered into the nomogram. The final model had a higher C-index for predicting OS than the American Joint Committee on Cancer-8th edition staging system (training set: 0.658 . 0.546; internal validation set: 0.661 . 0.546; external validation set: 0.691 . 0.581). The 1-, 2-, and 3-year area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values indicated better discrimination power for the established nomogram with respect to the prediction of OS in the training, internal validation, and external validation sets than for the American Joint Committee on Cancer-8th edition staging system. Furthermore, the nomogram performed well in both calibration and decision curve analyses (DCA) of clinical applicability. OS in PaC patients with PLNs was significantly distinguished among the three risk groups stratified according to the nomogram score (P<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The well-calibrated nomogram was determined to be extremely efficient in predicting survival, and defining a high-risk population based on the nomogram score among PaC patients with PLNs after surgery.