Division of Prevention and Community Health, National Center for Cardiovascular Disease, National Clinical Research Center of Cardiovascular Disease, State Key Laboratory of Cardiovascular Disease, Fuwai Hospital, Peking Union Medical College & Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing, 102308, China.
State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China.
Environ Pollut. 2021 Jun 1;278:116831. doi: 10.1016/j.envpol.2021.116831. Epub 2021 Mar 1.
In the context of global climate change, far less is known about the impact of long-term temperature variability (TV), especially in developing countries. The current study aimed to estimate the effect of long-term TV on the incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in China. A total of 23,721 individuals with a mean age of 56.15 years were enrolled at baseline from 2012 to 2016 and followed up during 2017-2019. TV was defined as the standard deviation of daily temperatures during survey years and was categorized into tertiles (lowest≤ 8.78 °C, middle = 8.78-10.07 °C, highest ≥ 10.07 °C). The Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate the multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio (HR) between TV and CVD. During the median follow-up of 4.65 years, we ascertained 836 cases of incident CVD. For per 1 °C increase in TV, there was a 6% increase of CVD (HR = 1.06 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.01-1.11]). A significant positive trend was observed between CVD risk and increasing levels of TV compared to the lowest tertile [HR = 1.34 (95% CI: 1.13-1.59) for the medium tertile, HR = 1.72 (95% CI: 1.35-2.19) for the highest tertile, P < 0.001]. Exposure to high TV would lose 2.11 disease-free years for the population aged 35-65 years and 66 CVD cases (or 7.95% cases) could been attributable to TV higher than 8.11 °C in the current study. The current findings suggested that long-term TV was associated with a higher risk of CVD incidence, it is needed to reduce the TV-related adverse health effect.
在全球气候变化的背景下，人们对长期温度变化（TV）的影响知之甚少，特别是在发展中国家。本研究旨在评估长期 TV 对中国心血管疾病（CVD）发病率的影响。共有 23721 名平均年龄为 56.15 岁的个体在 2012 年至 2016 年期间入组为基线人群，并在 2017 年至 2019 年期间进行了随访。TV 被定义为调查年份内每日温度的标准差，并分为三分位（最低≤8.78°C，中间=8.78-10.07°C，最高≥10.07°C）。使用 Cox 比例风险回归估计 TV 与 CVD 之间的多变量调整后的风险比（HR）。在中位数为 4.65 年的随访期间，我们确定了 836 例 CVD 事件。TV 每增加 1°C，CVD 增加 6%（HR=1.06[95%置信区间（CI）：1.01-1.11]）。与最低三分位相比，观察到 CVD 风险与 TV 水平的增加呈显著正相关趋势[中三分位 HR=1.34（95% CI：1.13-1.59），高三分位 HR=1.72（95% CI：1.35-2.19），P<0.001]。对于 35-65 岁的人群，暴露于高 TV 会导致 2.11 年的无疾病年数损失，而在本研究中，高于 8.11°C 的 TV 可归因于 66 例 CVD 病例（或 7.95%的病例）。本研究结果表明，长期 TV 与 CVD 发病率增加相关，需要降低 TV 相关的不良健康影响。
