Simulation and optimization of land use pattern to embed ecological suitability in an oasis region: A case study of Ganzhou district, Gansu province, China.

High-intensity land use has led to water resource imbalance and land degradation in oasis regions, which pose a great threat to ecological security. Optimization of land use patterns is crucial to ensuring the rational distribution of water and land resources and improving the stability of oasis ecosystems. The purpose of this study is to spatially allocate land use activities to more suitable regions. In this study, we first evaluated the land ecological suitability (LES) in Ganzhou District, a typical oasis region. Then, the LES evaluation results were embedded in an integrated CA-Markov model based on multiple criteria evaluation (MCE) and multi-objective land allocation (MOLA) to simulate and optimize land use patterns for the year 2025 under two scenarios, i.e., Business as Usual (BAU) and Land Ecological Optimization (LEO). The results revealed that the optimized land use pattern generated by LES was more reasonable. The growth rate of construction land was restricted, and a slightly increased area of construction land mainly occupied unused land. Farmland area had a decreasing trend, and was mainly converted to grassland. Moreover, the woodland and water areas had increasing trends. This study can serve as a scientific reference for planners and policy makers in formulating land use planning and land use resource management strategies in oasis regions.