UMR Inserm, U1043, UMR CNRS, U5282, Centre de Physiopathologie de Toulouse Purpan (CPTP), Toulouse, France.
Virology Laboratory, Centre Hospitalier Universitaire (CHU) de Toulouse, Hôpital Purpan, Toulouse, France.
Rev Med Virol. 2021 Sep;31(5):1-8. doi: 10.1002/rmv.2224. Epub 2021 Mar 13.
The spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and the resulting disease COVID-19 has killed over 2 million people as of 22 January 2021. We have used a modified susceptible, infected, recovered epidemiological model to predict how the spread of the virus in France will vary depending on the public health strategies adopted, including anti-COVID-19 vaccination. Our prediction model indicates that the French authorities' adoption of a gradual release from lockdown could lead in March 2021 to a virus prevalence similar to that before lockdown. However, a massive vaccination campaign initiated in January 2021 and the continuation of public health measures over several months could curb the spread of virus and thus relieve the load on hospitals.
截至 2021 年 1 月 22 日，严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒 2（SARS-CoV-2）的传播及其导致的疾病 COVID-19 已导致超过 200 万人死亡。我们使用了改良的易感、感染、恢复的流行病学模型来预测病毒在法国的传播将如何根据所采取的公共卫生策略而变化，包括抗 COVID-19 疫苗接种。我们的预测模型表明，法国当局逐步放宽封锁措施可能会导致 2021 年 3 月病毒的流行率与封锁前相似。然而，2021 年 1 月开始的大规模疫苗接种运动和数月的公共卫生措施的持续实施可能会遏制病毒的传播，从而减轻医院的负担。
