中国实现雄心勃勃的煤炭发电逐步淘汰的逐厂策略。
A plant-by-plant strategy for high-ambition coal power phaseout in China.
机构信息
Center for Global Sustainability, School of Public Policy, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA.
Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA.
出版信息
Nat Commun. 2021 Mar 16;12(1):1468. doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-21786-0.
More than half of current coal power capacity is in China. A key strategy for meeting China's 2060 carbon neutrality goal and the global 1.5 °C climate goal is to rapidly shift away from unabated coal use. Here we detail how to structure a high-ambition coal phaseout in China while balancing multiple national needs. We evaluate the 1037 currently operating coal plants based on comprehensive technical, economic and environmental criteria and develop a metric for prioritizing plants for early retirement. We find that 18% of plants consistently score poorly across all three criteria and are thus low-hanging fruits for rapid retirement. We develop plant-by-plant phaseout strategies for each province by combining our retirement algorithm with an integrated assessment model. With rapid retirement of the low-hanging fruits, other existing plants can operate with a 20- or 30-year minimum lifetime and gradually reduced utilization to achieve the 1.5 °C or well-below 2 °C climate goals, respectively, with complete phaseout by 2045 and 2055.
目前超过一半的煤炭发电能力在中国。实现中国 2060 年碳中和目标和全球 1.5°C 气候目标的关键策略是迅速摆脱无限制的煤炭使用。在这里，我们详细介绍了如何在中国构建一个高雄心的煤炭淘汰计划，同时平衡多个国家的需求。我们根据综合技术、经济和环境标准评估了目前正在运行的 1037 座燃煤电厂，并开发了一种对提前退役的电厂进行优先排序的衡量标准。我们发现，18%的电厂在所有三个标准上的得分都很差，因此是快速淘汰的明显目标。我们通过将我们的退休算法与综合评估模型相结合，为每个省份制定了逐厂的淘汰策略。通过快速淘汰明显目标，其他现有的电厂可以以 20 年或 30 年的最小寿命运行，并逐步减少利用，以分别实现 1.5°C 或远低于 2°C 的气候目标，到 2045 年和 2055 年完全淘汰。
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