中国碳中和转型中基于情景的电价预测。

Scenario-based projections of electricity prices in China's carbon-neutral transition.

作者信息

Wang Shurui, Mo Jianlei, Yang Jie, Liu Mingxi, Pan Jiaofeng, Shi Xunpeng, Huang Ye

机构信息

Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China.

University of Technology Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia.

出版信息

iScience. 2025 Jun 20;28(7):112958. doi: 10.1016/j.isci.2025.112958. eCollection 2025 Jul 18.

DOI:10.1016/j.isci.2025.112958

PMID:40678512

原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12270656/

Abstract

China's carbon neutrality goal by 2060 presents major challenges and opportunities for its electricity market. This study analyzes baseline, low-efficiency, and high-efficiency scenarios to represent potential decarbonization pathways in China up to 2060, aiming to estimate the range of electricity prices for each province. A comprehensive dataset covering 5680 coal power units, 342 hydroelectric plants, 172 gas power stations, 19 nuclear power stations, and various solar and wind farms, provides a solid foundation for a bottom-up calculation approach. The results show that most provinces will see a decline in electricity prices due to technological advancements and optimized power generation. The findings in this research contribute to the academic understanding of regional electricity market dynamics under long-term decarbonization scenarios and offer a quantitative basis for evaluating policy impacts on future electricity pricing.

摘要

中国到2060年实现碳中和的目标给其电力市场带来了重大挑战和机遇。本研究分析了基准情景、低效情景和高效情景，以展现中国到2060年潜在的脱碳路径，旨在估算每个省份的电价范围。一个涵盖5680个煤电机组、342个水电站、172个燃气电站、19个核电站以及各类太阳能和风电场的综合数据集，为自下而上的计算方法提供了坚实基础。结果表明，由于技术进步和发电优化，大多数省份的电价将会下降。本研究的结果有助于学术界理解长期脱碳情景下区域电力市场的动态，并为评估政策对未来电价的影响提供定量依据。