Gerten Judith, Zürn Michael K, Topolinski Sascha
University of Cologne, Germany.
Pers Soc Psychol Bull. 2022 Feb;48(2):183-202. doi: 10.1177/0146167221998533. Epub 2021 Mar 17.
For financial decision-making, people trade off the expected value (return) and the variance (risk) of an option, preferring higher returns to lower ones and lower risks to higher ones. To make decision-makers indifferent between a risky and risk-free option, the expected value of the risky option must exceed the value of the risk-free option by a certain amount-the . Previous psychological research suggests that similar to risk aversion, people dislike inconsistency in an interaction partner's behavior. In eight experiments (total = 2,412) we pitted this inconsistency aversion against the expected returns from interacting with an inconsistent partner. We identified the additional expected return of interacting with an inconsistent partner that must be granted to make decision-makers prefer a more profitable, but inconsistent partner to a consistent, but less profitable one. We locate this at around 31% of the expected value of the risk-free option.
在财务决策中，人们会权衡一个选项的预期价值（回报）和方差（风险），偏好更高的回报而非更低的回报，偏好更低的风险而非更高的风险。为了使决策者对有风险和无风险的选项无差异，有风险选项的预期价值必须超过无风险选项的价值一定数额——风险溢价。先前的心理学研究表明，与风险厌恶类似，人们不喜欢互动伙伴行为中的不一致。在八项实验（总计N = 2412）中，我们将这种不一致厌恶与与不一致伙伴互动的预期回报进行了对比。我们确定了与不一致伙伴互动时必须给予的额外预期回报，以使决策者更偏好一个更有利可图但不一致的伙伴，而非一个一致但利润较低的伙伴。我们将这个风险溢价定位在无风险选项预期价值的31%左右。
