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价值追求与预测-决策不一致:为什么人们不选择他们预测自己会最喜欢的东西?

Value seeking and prediction-decision inconsistency: why don't people take what they predict they'll like the most?

作者信息

Hsee C K

机构信息

Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago, IL 60637, USA.

出版信息

Psychon Bull Rev. 1999 Dec;6(4):555-61. doi: 10.3758/bf03212963.

DOI:10.3758/bf03212963
PMID:10682197
Abstract

In this research, it is proposed that, when making a choice between consumption goods, people do not just think about which option will deliver the highest consumption utility but also think about which choice is most consistent with rationales--beliefs about how they should make decisions. The present article examines a specific rationale, value seeking. The value-seeking rationale refers to the belief that one should choose the option in a choice set that has the highest monetary value. Studies 1 and 2 show that value seeking could lead to a prediction-decision inconsistency, predicting a high consumption utility from one option but choosing another option. Study 3 shows that the prediction-decision inconsistency could be created even by "illusory" (as opposed to truly monetary) values and that the inconsistency could be turned on or off through empirical manipulation.

摘要

在本研究中,有人提出,在消费品之间进行选择时,人们不仅会考虑哪种选择能带来最高的消费效用,还会考虑哪种选择最符合理性——即关于他们应该如何做决策的信念。本文考察了一种特定的理性,即价值寻求。价值寻求理性是指这样一种信念,即人们应该在一组选择中选择具有最高货币价值的选项。研究1和研究2表明,价值寻求可能导致预测与决策的不一致,即预测一个选项具有高消费效用,但却选择另一个选项。研究3表明,即使是“虚幻的”(而非真正的货币)价值也可能导致预测与决策的不一致,并且这种不一致可以通过实证操纵来开启或消除。

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