I-Biostat, Data Science Institute, Hasselt University, Martelarenlaan 42, Hasselt, 3500, Belgium.
The Janssen Pharmaceutical Companies of Johnson & Johnson, Antwerpen, Belgium.
BMC Infect Dis. 2021 Mar 18;21(1):274. doi: 10.1186/s12879-021-05949-4.
In 2010-2011, we conducted a social contact survey in Flanders, Belgium, aimed at improving and extending the design of the first social contact survey conducted in Belgium in 2006. This second social contact survey aimed to enable, for the first time, the estimation of social mixing patterns for an age range of 0 to 99 years and the investigation of whether contact rates remain stable over this 5-year time period.
Different data mining techniques are used to explore the data, and the age-specific number of social contacts and the age-specific contact rates are modelled using a generalized additive models for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS) model. We compare different matrices using assortativeness measures. The relative change in the basic reproduction number (R) and the ratio of relative incidences with 95% bootstrap confidence intervals (BCI) are employed to investigate and quantify the impact on epidemic spread due to differences in sex, day of the week, holiday vs. regular periods and changes in mixing patterns over the 5-year time gap between the 2006 and 2010-2011 surveys. Finally, we compare the fit of the contact matrices in 2006 and 2010-2011 to Varicella serological data.
All estimated contact patterns featured strong homophily in age and sex, especially for small children and adolescents. A 30% (95% BCI [17%; 37%]) and 29% (95% BCI [14%; 40%]) reduction in R was observed for weekend versus weekdays and for holiday versus regular periods, respectively. Significantly more interactions between people aged 60+ years and their grandchildren were observed on holiday and weekend days than on regular weekdays. Comparing contact patterns using different methods did not show any substantial differences over the 5-year time period under study.
The second social contact survey in Flanders, Belgium, endorses the findings of its 2006 predecessor and adds important information on the social mixing patterns of people older than 60 years of age. Based on this analysis, the mixing patterns of people older than 60 years exhibit considerable heterogeneity, and overall, the comparison of the two surveys shows that social contact rates can be assumed stable in Flanders over a time span of 5 years.
2010-2011 年，我们在比利时弗兰德斯进行了一项社会接触调查，旨在改进和扩展 2006 年在比利时进行的首次社会接触调查的设计。第二次社会接触调查旨在首次估计 0 至 99 岁年龄组的社会混合模式，并调查在这 5 年期间接触率是否保持稳定。
使用不同的数据挖掘技术来探索数据，并使用广义加性模型进行位置、比例和形状（GAMLSS）模型来对特定年龄的社交接触次数和特定年龄的接触率进行建模。我们使用关联度度量来比较不同的矩阵。使用基本繁殖数（R）的相对变化和相对发病率的比值（带有 95%的自举置信区间（BCI））来调查和量化由于性别、星期几、假期与正常期间以及在 2006 年和 2010-2011 年调查之间的 5 年时间间隔内混合模式的变化对传染病传播的影响。最后，我们比较了 2006 年和 2010-2011 年接触矩阵对水痘血清学数据的拟合度。
所有估计的接触模式都具有很强的年龄和性别同质性，尤其是对幼儿和青少年。周末与工作日相比，R 降低了 30%（95% BCI [17%；37%]），假期与正常工作日相比，R 降低了 29%（95% BCI [14%；40%]）。在假期和周末，观察到 60 岁以上的人与他们的孙辈之间的互动明显更多。在研究的 5 年时间内，使用不同方法比较接触模式并没有显示出任何实质性差异。
比利时弗兰德斯的第二次社会接触调查证实了其 2006 年的前身的发现，并提供了有关 60 岁以上人群社会混合模式的重要信息。基于这项分析，60 岁以上人群的混合模式表现出相当大的异质性，总的来说，两次调查的比较表明，在 5 年的时间跨度内，弗兰德斯的社会接触率可以假定是稳定的。
