K Banerjee Centre of Atmospheric and Ocean Studies and M N Saha Centre of Space Studies, University of Allahabad, Prayagraj, UP, 211002, India.
Int J Biometeorol. 2021 Jul;65(7):1161-1175. doi: 10.1007/s00484-021-02097-x. Epub 2021 Mar 18.
Efforts have been made to quantify the spatio-temporal malaria transmission intensity over India using the dynamical malaria model, namely, Vector-borne Disease Community Model of International Centre for Theoretical Physics Trieste (VECTRI). The likely effect of climate change in the variability of malaria transmission intensity over different parts of India is also investigated. The Historical data and future projection scenarios of the rainfall and temperature derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model output are used for this purpose. The Entomological Inoculation Rate (EIR) and Vector are taken as quantifiers of malaria transmission intensity. It is shown that the maximum number of malaria cases over India occur during the Sept-Oct months, whereas the minimum during the Feb-Apr months. The malaria transmission intensity as well as length of transmission season over India is likely to increase in the future climate as a result of global warming.
人们已经努力使用动态疟疾模型（即国际理论物理中心的虫媒疾病社区模型）来量化印度的时空疟疾传播强度。还研究了气候变化对印度不同地区疟疾传播强度变化的可能影响。为此目的，使用了来自耦合模型比较计划第 5 阶段（CMIP5）模型输出的降雨和温度的历史数据和未来预测情景。昆虫接种率（EIR）和媒介被用作疟疾传播强度的量化指标。结果表明，印度的疟疾病例最多发生在 9 月至 10 月，而最少发生在 2 月至 4 月。由于全球变暖，未来气候下印度的疟疾传播强度和传播季节长度可能会增加。
