Clinical impact of estimated plasma volume status and its additive effect with the GRACE risk score on in-hospital and long-term mortality for acute myocardial infarction.

BACKGROUND

Estimated plasma volume status (ePVS) is a well-validated prognostic indicator in heart failure. However, it remains unclear whether ePVS has prognostic significance in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Moreover, there is no available information on its additive effect with the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk score in AMI patients.

METHODS

Data were obtained from the Osaka Acute Coronary Insufficiency Study (OACIS) registry database. Patients whose data were available for ePVS derived from Hakim's formula and the GRACE risk score were studied. The primary endpoints were in-hospital and 5-year mortality.

RESULTS

Of 3930 patients, 206 and 200 patients died during hospitalization and 5 years after discharge, respectively. After adjustment, ePVS remained an independent predictor of in-hospital death (OR:1.02, 95% CI: 1.00-1.04, p = 0.036), and 5-year mortality(HR:1.03, 95% CI: 1.01-1.04, p < 0.001). An additive effect of ePVS with the GRACE risk score was observed in predicting the 5-year mortality with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) from 0.744 to 0.763 (p = 0.026), but not in-hospital mortality (the AUC changed from 0.875 to 0.875, p = 0.529). The incremental predictive value of combining ePVS and the GRACE risk score for 5-year mortality was significantly improved, as shown by the net reclassification improvement (NRI:0.378, p < 0.001) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI:0.014, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with AMI, ePVS independently predicted in-hospital and long-term mortality. In addition, ePVS had an additive effect with the GRACE risk score on long-term mortality. Therefore, ePVS may be useful for identifying high-risk subjects for intensive treatment.