Gill Paul, Corner Emily, Farnham Frank, Wilson Simon, Marchment Zoe, Taylor Alice, Taylor Richard, James David
Department of Security and Crime Science, University College London, London, UK.
Centre for Social Research and Methods, Australia National University, Canberra, Australia.
J Forensic Sci. 2021 Jul;66(4):1364-1376. doi: 10.1111/1556-4029.14708. Epub 2021 Mar 21.
Concerning approaches and communications to the Royal Family and other British public figures are relatively numerous. This paper examines over 2000 such cases logged over a three-year period in the United Kingdom. Using police and health data, the paper conducts a series of bivariate and multivariate analyses to demonstrate the predictors of what types of risk are posed by an individual case (e.g., communicate only, approach, security breach). The results showed that (a) the rates of serious mental disorders are higher among this sample than the general population base rate, (b) approachers were significantly more likely than communicators to suffer from serious mental disorders, (c) approachers were significantly more likely than communicators to have a history of substance use and abuse problems, (d) approachers were significantly more likely than communicators to have a history of violent behavior against property and persons, and (e) the motivations of approachers and communicators significantly differ. The paper concludes with a consideration of the implications for threat assessment and management.
涉及接近王室成员及其他英国公众人物的途径和交流方式相对较多。本文研究了英国三年内记录的2000多起此类案例。利用警方和健康数据，本文进行了一系列双变量和多变量分析，以证明单个案例会带来何种类型风险（例如，仅交流、接近、安全漏洞）的预测因素。结果显示：（a）该样本中严重精神障碍的发生率高于一般人群的基线率；（b）接近者比交流者患严重精神障碍的可能性显著更高；（c）接近者比交流者有物质使用和滥用问题历史的可能性显著更高；（d）接近者比交流者有针对财产和人员的暴力行为历史的可能性显著更高；（e）接近者和交流者的动机存在显著差异。本文最后考虑了对威胁评估和管理的影响。
