Department of Chemical and Environmental Engineering, University of Nottingham Ningbo China, Ningbo 315100, PR China.
School of Mathematical Sciences, University of Nottingham Ningbo China, Ningbo 315100, PR China.
Sci Total Environ. 2021 Jul 20;779:146427. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.146427. Epub 2021 Mar 13.
Lung cancer (LC) mortality, as one of the top cancer deaths in China, has been associated with increased levels of exposure to ambient air pollutants. In this study, different lag times on weekly basis were applied to study the association of air pollutants (PM2.5, PM10, and NO2) and LC mortality in Ningbo, and in subpopulations at different age groups and genders. Furthermore, seasonal variations of pollutant concentrations and meteorological variables (temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed) were analysed. A generalised additive model (GAM) using Poisson regression was employed to estimate the effect of single pollutant model on LC mortality in Yangtze River Delta using Ningbo as a case study. It was reported that there were statistically significant relationships between lung cancer mortality and air pollutants. Increases of 6.2% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.2% to 12.6%) and 4.3% (95% CI: 0.1% to 8.5%) weekly total LC mortality with a 3-week lag time were linked to each 10 μg/m increase of weekly average PM and PM respectively. The association of air pollutants (PM, PM and NO) and LC mortality with a 3-week lag time was also found statistically significant during periods of low temperature (T < 18 °C), low relative humidity (H < 73.7%) and low wind speed (u < 2.8 m/s), respectively. The female population was found to be more susceptible to the exposure to air pollution than the male population. In addition, the population with an age of 50 years or above was shown to be more sensitive to ambient air pollutant. These outcomes indicated that increased risk of lung cancer mortality was evidently linked to exposure to ambient air pollutant on a weekly basis. The impact of weekly variation on the LC mortality and air pollutant levels should be considered in air pollution-related health burden analysis.
肺癌（LC）死亡率是中国癌症死亡的主要原因之一，与暴露于环境空气污染物的水平增加有关。在这项研究中，我们在每周基础上应用不同的时间滞后来研究污染物（PM2.5、PM10 和 NO2）与宁波 LC 死亡率之间的关系，并研究不同年龄组和性别人群的亚组。此外，还分析了污染物浓度和气象变量（温度、相对湿度和风速）的季节性变化。使用广义相加模型（GAM）和泊松回归，以宁波为例，研究了长三角地区单一污染物模型对 LC 死亡率的影响。结果表明，肺癌死亡率与空气污染物之间存在统计学显著关系。与每周平均 PM 浓度增加 10μg/m 相关的总 LC 死亡率每周增加 6.2%（95%置信区间 [CI]：0.2%至 12.6%）和 4.3%（95% CI：0.1%至 8.5%），滞后时间为 3 周；每周平均 PM 浓度增加 10μg/m 与滞后时间为 3 周的每周总 LC 死亡率增加 4.3%（95%CI：0.1%至 8.5%）之间存在统计学显著关系。在低温（T<18°C）、低相对湿度（H<73.7%）和低风速（u<2.8m/s）期间，也发现空气污染物（PM、PM 和 NO）与 LC 死亡率之间的关联具有统计学意义。与男性相比，女性对空气污染的暴露更为敏感。此外，年龄在 50 岁或以上的人群对环境空气污染物更为敏感。这些结果表明，每周暴露于环境空气污染物与肺癌死亡率的增加明显相关。在与空气污染相关的健康负担分析中，应考虑每周变化对 LC 死亡率和空气污染物水平的影响。
