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[2020年新冠疫情第二波之前瑞士的超额死亡率分析]

[Analysis of Excess Mortality in Switzerland in 2020 before the 2 Wave of COVID-19].

作者信息

Rousson Valentin, Chaouch Aziz, Bochud Murielle

机构信息

Unisanté, 1011 Lausanne.

出版信息

Rev Med Suisse. 2021 Mar 17;17(730):518-520.

Abstract

An analysis of excess mortality in Switzerland in 2020 before the 2nd wave of COVID-19 is proposed by comparing the number of deaths observed in 2020 with those of the last five years, while taking into account population growth. Three periods are identified : before, during and after the 1st wave of COVID-19. Over all these periods, a sub-mortality of -3.3 % is obtained at the national level. However, if we restrict the analysis to the period during the first wave and to the cantons most affected by the virus, we obtain an important excess mortality, up to more than 80 % in Ticino, showing that these calculations depend crucially on when, where and for whom the deaths are counted. Such an analysis will have to be repeated once the 2nd wave is over in order to estimate the overall impact of the epidemic on excess mortality in Switzerland.

摘要

通过比较2020年观察到的死亡人数与过去五年的死亡人数,并考虑人口增长情况,对瑞士在2020年第二波新冠疫情之前的超额死亡率进行分析。确定了三个时期:第一波新冠疫情之前、期间和之后。在所有这些时期内,全国层面的死亡率低于正常水平3.3%。然而,如果将分析限制在第一波疫情期间以及受病毒影响最严重的州,我们会得出显著的超额死亡率,提契诺州高达80%以上,这表明这些计算结果关键取决于死亡人数的统计时间、地点和对象。第二波疫情结束后,必须重复这样的分析,以估计疫情对瑞士超额死亡率的总体影响。

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