Department of Environmental Dynamics, National Institute for Research in Amazonia (INPA), Av. André Araújo n° 2936, CEP 69067-375, Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil.
Department of Environmental Dynamics, National Institute for Research in Amazonia (INPA), Av. André Araújo n° 2936, CEP 69067-375, Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil.
J Environ Manage. 2021 Jun 15;288:112310. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.112310. Epub 2021 Mar 21.
Forest fires and deforestation are the main threats to the Amazon forest. Extreme drought events exacerbate the impact of forest fire in the Amazon, and these drought events are predicted to become more frequent due to climate change. Fire escapes into the forest from agriculture and pasture areas. We assessed the potential drivers of deforestation and forest fires in the central Brazilian Amazon and show that over a period of 31 years (1985-2015) forest fires occurred only in years of extreme drought induced by El Niño (1997, 2009 and 2015). The association of forest fires with strong El Niños shows the vulnerability of forest to climate change. The areas deforested were closely associated with navigable rivers: 62% of the total deforestation from 2000 to 2018 was located within the 2 km of rivers. There was a notable increase in deforestation and forest fire during the 2015 El Niño in comparison to previous years. Only a small part of the forest that burned was deforested in the years following the wildfires: 7% (1997), 3% (2009) and 1.5% (2015). Forest close to roads, rivers and established deforestation is susceptible to deforestation and fire since these areas are attractive for agriculture and pasture. Indigenous land was shown to be important in protecting the forest, while rural settlement projects attracted both forest fire and deforestation. Of the total area in settlement projects, 40% was affected by forest fires and 17% was deforested. Rivers are particularly important for deforestation in this part of Amazonia, and efforts to protect forest along the rivers are therefore necessary. The ability to predict where deforestation and fires are most likely to occur is important for designing policies for preventative actions.
森林火灾和森林砍伐是亚马逊森林面临的主要威胁。极端干旱事件加剧了亚马逊森林火灾的影响，而这些干旱事件预计因气候变化而更加频繁。火灾从农业和牧场地区蔓延到森林。我们评估了巴西中部亚马逊地区森林砍伐和森林火灾的潜在驱动因素，并表明在 31 年的时间里（1985-2015 年），只有在厄尔尼诺现象引发的极端干旱年份（1997 年、2009 年和 2015 年）才会发生森林火灾。森林火灾与强厄尔尼诺现象的关联表明了森林对气候变化的脆弱性。被砍伐的地区与可通航的河流密切相关：2000 年至 2018 年期间，总砍伐面积的 62%位于河流 2 公里范围内。与前几年相比，2015 年厄尔尼诺现象期间，森林砍伐和森林火灾显著增加。只有一小部分在火灾发生后的年份被砍伐：1997 年为 7%，2009 年为 3%，2015 年为 1.5%。靠近道路、河流和已开垦的森林更容易发生森林砍伐和火灾，因为这些地区对农业和牧场具有吸引力。事实证明，土著土地在保护森林方面非常重要，而农村定居点项目则同时吸引了森林火灾和森林砍伐。在定居点项目的总面积中，40%受到森林火灾的影响，17%被砍伐。河流对亚马逊这一地区的森林砍伐尤其重要，因此有必要在河流沿岸开展保护森林的工作。预测森林砍伐和火灾最有可能发生的地点的能力对于设计预防行动的政策非常重要。
