State Key Laboratory of Alternate Electrical Power System with Renewable Energy Sources, North China Electric Power University, Beijing, 102206, China.
Interdisciplinary Mathematics Institute, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC, 29208, USA.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2021 Aug;28(29):39966-39981. doi: 10.1007/s11356-021-13516-2. Epub 2021 Mar 25.
Wind energy, as one of the renewable energies with the most potential for development, has been widely concerned by many countries. However, due to the great volatility and uncertainty of natural wind, wind power also fluctuates, seriously affecting the reliability of wind power system and bringing challenges to large-scale grid connection of wind power. Wind speed prediction is very important to ensure the safety and stability of wind power generation system. In this paper, a new wind speed prediction scheme is proposed. First, improved hybrid mode decomposition is used to decompose the wind speed data into the trend part and the fluctuation part, and the noise is decomposed twice. Then wavelet analysis is used to decompose the trend part and the fluctuation part for the third time. The decomposed data are classified. The long- and short-term memory neural network optimized by the improved particle swarm optimization algorithm is used to train the nonlinear sequence and noise sequence, and the autoregressive moving average model is used to train the linear sequence. Finally, the final prediction results were reconstructed. This paper uses this system to predict the wind speed data of China's Changma wind farm and Spain's Sotavento wind farm. By experimenting with the real data from two different wind farms and comparing with other predictive models, we found that (1) by improving the mode number selection in the variational mode decomposition, the characteristics of wind speed data can be better extracted. (2) According to the different characteristics of component data, the combination method is selected to predict modal components, which makes full use of the advantages of different algorithms and has good prediction effect. (3) The optimization algorithm is used to optimize the neural network, which solves the problem of parameter setting when establishing the prediction model. (4) The combination forecasting model proposed in this paper has clear structure and accurate prediction results. The research work in this paper will help to promote the development of wind energy prediction field, help wind farms formulate wind power regulation strategies, and further promote the construction of green energy structure.
风能作为最具发展潜力的可再生能源之一,受到许多国家的广泛关注。然而,由于自然风的巨大波动性和不确定性,风力也会波动,严重影响风力系统的可靠性,并给风力的大规模并网带来挑战。风速预测对于确保风力发电系统的安全性和稳定性非常重要。在本文中,提出了一种新的风速预测方案。首先,采用改进的混合模态分解方法将风速数据分解为趋势部分和波动部分,并对噪声进行二次分解。然后,采用小波分析方法对趋势部分和波动部分进行第三次分解。对分解后的数据进行分类。采用改进的粒子群优化算法优化的长短期记忆神经网络对非线性序列和噪声序列进行训练,采用自回归移动平均模型对线性序列进行训练。最后,重构最终的预测结果。本文使用该系统对中国昌马风电场和西班牙索塔文托风电场的风速数据进行预测。通过对来自两个不同风电场的真实数据进行实验,并与其他预测模型进行比较,我们发现:(1)通过改进变分模态分解中的模态数选择,可以更好地提取风速数据的特征。(2)根据分量数据的不同特点,选择组合方法进行模态分量预测,充分利用了不同算法的优势,具有良好的预测效果。(3)优化算法用于优化神经网络,解决了在建立预测模型时的参数设置问题。(4)本文提出的组合预测模型结构清晰,预测结果准确。本文的研究工作将有助于推动风能预测领域的发展,帮助风电场制定风力调节策略,进一步推动绿色能源结构的建设。