Department of Economics and Finance, University of Rome "Tor Vergata", Rome, Italy.
Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs (KIHASA), Sejong City, South Korea.
Health Econ. 2021 Nov;30 Suppl 1:11-29. doi: 10.1002/hec.4258. Epub 2021 Mar 26.
The aging process in OECD countries calls for a better understanding of the future disease prevalence, life expectancy (LE) and patterns of inequalities in health outcomes. In this paper we present the results obtained from several dynamic microsimulation models of the Future Elderly Model family for 12 OECD countries, with the aim of reproducing for the first time comparable long-term projections in individual health status across OECD countries. We provide projections of LE and prevalence of major chronic conditions and disabilities, overall, by gender and by education. We find that the prevalence of main chronic conditions in Europe is catching-up with the United States and significant heterogeneity in the evolution of gender and educational gradients. Our findings represent a contribution to support policymakers in designing and implementing effective interventions in the healthcare sector.
经合组织国家的老龄化进程要求我们更好地了解未来的疾病流行情况、预期寿命（LE）以及健康结果不平等的模式。本文介绍了未来老年人模型系列中 12 个经合组织国家的几个动态微观模拟模型的结果，目的是首次在经合组织国家之间复制可比的个人健康状况长期预测。我们提供了 LE 和主要慢性疾病和残疾的流行率预测，包括总体情况、按性别和教育程度划分的情况。我们发现，欧洲主要慢性疾病的流行率正在赶上美国，性别和教育程度梯度的演变存在显著的异质性。我们的研究结果为支持政策制定者在医疗保健部门设计和实施有效干预措施提供了贡献。
