National Technical University of Athens, Physics Department, Greece.
Infect Genet Evol. 2021 Jul;91:104817. doi: 10.1016/j.meegid.2021.104817. Epub 2021 Mar 25.
After the outbreak of the new COVID-19 disease, the mitigation stage has been reached in most of the countries in the world. During this stage, a more accurate data analysis of the daily reported cases and other parameters became possible for the European countries and has been performed in this work. Based on a proposed parametrization model appropriate for implementation to an epidemic in a large population, we focused on the disease spread and we studied the obtained curves, as well as, investigating probable correlations between the country's characteristics and the parameters of the parametrization. We have also developed a methodology for coupling our model to the SIR-based models determining the basic and the effective reproductive number referring to the parameter space. The obtained results and conclusions could be useful in the case of a recurrence of this insidious disease in the future.
自新型 COVID-19 疾病爆发以来，世界上大多数国家已进入缓解阶段。在此阶段，欧洲国家能够对每日报告病例和其他参数进行更准确的数据分析，并在这项工作中执行了该分析。基于一个适用于在大人群中实施的流行病情报模型，我们专注于疾病的传播，并研究了所得的曲线，同时还调查了国家特征与参数之间的可能相关性。我们还开发了一种将我们的模型与基于 SIR 的模型耦合的方法，该方法确定了与参数空间相关的基本和有效繁殖数。在未来这种疾病再次出现的情况下，所得结果和结论可能会很有用。
