Sreedharan Jayadevan, Nair Satish Chandrasekhar, Muttappallymyalil Jayakumary, Gopakumar Aji, Eapen Neena Thomas, Satish Karthyayani Priya, Manda Venkatramana
College of Medicine, Gulf Medical University, P O Box 4184, Ajman, UAE.
Tawam Hospital Johns Hopkins Medicine Affiliate and College of Medicine, UAE University, Al Ain, UAE.
Z Gesundh Wiss. 2022;30(11):2575-2583. doi: 10.1007/s10389-021-01491-4. Epub 2021 Mar 24.
The current study assessed the case fatality rate (CFR) across different income level countries of the world, and the virulence pattern of COVID-19, against the backdrop of panic and uncertainty faced by many governments, who are trying to impose draconian containment measures to control the outbreak. Subjects and Methods: Data on confirmed cases and number of deaths due to coronavirus infection were retrieved from the WHO as on 30 March 2020, and examined for the various income level countries, per the World Bank criteria. The CFR was calculated country-wise and estimated for the various groups such as low, lower-middle, upper-middle, and high-income, and the data was analyzed.
The overall CFR for the high income countries was 5.0%, compared with a CFR of 2.8% for low-income countries. The upper-middle-income countries showed a CFR of 4.3%, while the lower-middle-income countries stood at 3.7%. The results from our study predict that the maximum CFR in high-income countries will be contained at approximately 5% (95% CI). The CFR for the low, lower-middle, and upper-middle-income countries will range between 2.8 and 4.3% (95% CI).
COVID-19, irrespective of its transmissibility, produces a lower CFR compared with that of SARS-Cov and MERS-Cov, although COVID-19 has infected eight times more countries than MERS-Cov and SARS-Cov, and caused a higher number of deaths. The nation-wide lockdown measures to prevent the spread of the virus may be reconsidered, given the hardships for the population and their impact on the economic system.
在许多政府面临恐慌和不确定性的背景下，本研究评估了世界不同收入水平国家的病死率（CFR）以及新冠病毒病的毒力模式，这些政府正试图实施严厉的防控措施来控制疫情爆发。对象与方法：从世界卫生组织检索截至2020年3月30日的冠状病毒感染确诊病例和死亡人数数据，并根据世界银行标准对不同收入水平国家的数据进行审查。按国家计算病死率，并对低收入、中低收入、中高收入和高收入等不同群体进行估计，然后对数据进行分析。
高收入国家的总体病死率为5.0%，而低收入国家的病死率为2.8%。中高收入国家的病死率为4.3%，中低收入国家为3.7%。我们的研究结果预测，高收入国家的最高病死率将控制在约5%（95%置信区间）。低收入、中低收入和中高收入国家的病死率将在2.8%至4.3%之间（95%置信区间）。
尽管新冠病毒病感染的国家数量是中东呼吸综合征冠状病毒和严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒的八倍，且导致的死亡人数更多，但其病死率低于这两种病毒。考虑到对民众造成的困难及其对经济体系的影响，可能需要重新考虑全国范围的封锁措施以防止病毒传播。
