Thakur Narender, Kumar Manik
Department of Economics Bhim Rao Ambedkar College, University of Delhi New Delhi India.
Center for Budget and Governance Accountability New Delhi India.
J Public Aff. 2021 Feb 1:e2632. doi: 10.1002/pa.2632.
This paper examines critically the economic package announced by the Indian central government to counter the challenges of lives and livelihood in the Covid-19 pandemic. This paper estimates the shares of the fiscal economic packages in two phases as per the shares of the vulnerable workers and number of Covid-19 cases in the Indian states. The recent data on labour market are used from National Sample Survey Organization and data on Covid-19 cases from Ministry of Health and Family Welfare. This paper recommends alternatively a fiscal stimulus package of Rs. 10 lakh crores (5% of GDP) with an immediate effect to counter the present problems of health, food and unemployment in the pandemic and should be extended to Rs. 24 lakh crores (12% of Indian GDP) to the Indian states for at least 1 year to protect the lives and livelihood of the most vulnerable, informal and migrant workers. The populous and poor states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar have higher share of vulnerable workers and highly industrialized states like Maharashtra, Gujarat, Delhi and Tamil Nadu have higher number of Covid-19 cases. Due to the unplanned lockdown in India, there has been a surge in Covid-19 cases across the country that in turn led to an increase in vulnerable workers in poor states due to reverse migration from industrialized states to populous and poor states during the pandemic. Furthermore, the paper explains the five significant factors that justify the adoption of an expansionary fiscal policy rather than monetary policy.
本文批判性地审视了印度中央政府为应对新冠疫情期间生命和生计挑战而宣布的经济一揽子计划。本文根据印度各邦弱势工人的比例和新冠病例数量，分两个阶段估算了财政经济一揽子计划的份额。劳动力市场的最新数据来自国家抽样调查组织，新冠病例数据来自卫生和家庭福利部。本文建议，作为替代方案，推出一项10万亿卢比（占国内生产总值的5%）的财政刺激计划，以立即应对疫情期间当前的健康、食品和失业问题，并应向印度各邦提供24万亿卢比（占印度国内生产总值的12%），为期至少1年，以保护最弱势、非正规和农民工的生命和生计。像北方邦和比哈尔邦这样人口众多且贫困的邦，弱势工人的比例较高；而像马哈拉施特拉邦、古吉拉特邦、德里和泰米尔纳德邦这样高度工业化的邦，新冠病例数量较多。由于印度实施的封锁缺乏规划，全国新冠病例激增，这反过来又导致贫困邦的弱势工人增加，因为在疫情期间，出现了从工业化邦向人口众多且贫困的邦的逆向迁移。此外，本文还解释了支持采取扩张性财政政策而非货币政策的五个重要因素。
