Smithsonian Migratory Bird Center, Washington, DC, USA.
HawkWatch International, Salt Lake City, UT, USA.
J Anim Ecol. 2021 May;90(5):1228-1238. doi: 10.1111/1365-2656.13449. Epub 2021 Mar 30.
Long-distance migrations are among the most physically demanding feats animals perform. Understanding the potential costs and benefits of such behaviour is a fundamental question in ecology and evolution. A hypothetical cost of migration should be outweighed by higher productivity and/or higher annual survival, but few studies on migratory species have been able to directly quantify patterns of survival throughout the full annual cycle and across the majority of a species' range. Here, we use telemetry data from 220 migratory Egyptian vultures Neophron percnopterus, tracked for 3,186 bird months and across approximately 70% of the species' global distribution, to test for differences in survival throughout the annual cycle. We estimated monthly survival probability relative to migration and latitude using a multi-event capture-recapture model in a Bayesian framework that accounted for age, origin, subpopulation and the uncertainty of classifying fates from tracking data. We found lower survival during migration compared to stationary periods (β = -0.816; 95% credible interval: -1.290 to -0.318) and higher survival on non-breeding grounds at southern latitudes (<25°N; β = 0.664; 0.076-1.319) compared to on breeding grounds. Survival was also higher for individuals originating from Western Europe (β = 0.664; 0.110-1.330) as compared to further east in Europe and Asia, and improved with age (β = 0.030; 0.020-0.042). Anthropogenic mortalities accounted for half of the mortalities with a known cause and occurred mainly in northern latitudes. Many juveniles drowned in the Mediterranean Sea on their first autumn migration while there were few confirmed mortalities in the Sahara Desert, indicating that migration barriers are likely species-specific. Our study advances the understanding of important fitness trade-offs associated with long-distance migration. We conclude that there is lower survival associated with migration, but that this may be offset by higher non-breeding survival at lower latitudes. We found more human-caused mortality farther north, and suggest that increasing anthropogenic mortality could disrupt the delicate migration trade-off balance. Research to investigate further potential benefits of migration (e.g. differential productivity across latitudes) could clarify how migration evolved and how migrants may persist in a rapidly changing world.
长途迁徙是动物最具挑战性的行为之一。了解这种行为的潜在成本和收益是生态学和进化的一个基本问题。迁徙的假设成本应该被更高的生产力和/或更高的年存活率所抵消,但很少有关于迁徙物种的研究能够直接量化整个年度周期内的存活率模式和跨越物种分布范围的大部分地区。在这里,我们使用来自 220 只迁徙埃及秃鹫 Neophron percnopterus 的遥测数据,这些秃鹫在大约 70%的物种全球分布范围内被追踪了 3186 个鸟月,以测试全年周期内的生存差异。我们使用贝叶斯框架中的多事件捕获-再捕获模型,根据年龄、起源、亚种群以及从跟踪数据分类命运的不确定性,相对于迁徙和纬度来估计每月的生存概率。我们发现,与静止期相比,迁徙期间的存活率较低(β=-0.816;95%置信区间:-1.290 至-0.318),与繁殖地相比,在非繁殖地的南部纬度(<25°N;β=0.664;0.076-1.319)的存活率更高。与来自欧洲东部和亚洲的个体相比,来自西欧的个体的存活率更高(β=0.664;0.110-1.330),并且随着年龄的增长而提高(β=0.030;0.020-0.042)。有一半已知原因的死亡是人为造成的,主要发生在北部纬度地区。许多幼鸟在第一次秋季迁徙中淹死在地中海,而在撒哈拉沙漠中很少有确认的死亡,这表明迁徙障碍可能是特定物种的。我们的研究增进了对与长途迁徙相关的重要适应权衡的理解。我们的结论是,迁徙与较低的存活率相关,但这可能被较低纬度的非繁殖存活率更高所抵消。我们发现越往北,人为造成的死亡率越高,并认为不断增加的人为死亡率可能会破坏微妙的迁徙平衡。研究进一步调查迁徙的潜在好处(例如,不同纬度的生产力差异)可以澄清迁徙是如何进化的,以及迁徙者如何在快速变化的世界中生存。