Long-term vegetation change in the Western Tien-Shan Mountain pastures, Central Asia, driven by a combination of changing precipitation patterns and grazing pressure.

In mountain pastures worldwide, studies investigating vegetation changes due to long-term grazing and environmental changes are sparse, especially regarding the effects of changes in snowmelt patterns. The outstanding availability of historical vegetation data from Kyrgyz mountain pastures creates unique opportunities to study past and forecast future changes, making them ideal model ecosystems. Using a resurvey approach, we explored the response of mountain vegetation to management and environmental changes in the Western Tien-Shan to investigate whether plant communities of six vegetation types (ecozones) had changed over 42 years, whether changes were related to management or ecological causes and whether species' mean elevational ranges had changed. We assembled historic vegetation data (1973-1987) in six ecozones that were resurveyed annually from 2008 to 2015 and connected them with species' management-related traits and ecological indicator values. Overall, a homogenization of vegetation within and among ecozones was observed. Mountain steppe, meadow-steppe, and subalpine meadows showed the strongest convergence towards a dominance of mesic shrubs, related to increasing precipitation changing soil moisture and soil-salt regimes. In the high mountain steppe and the alpine ecozone, cushion dwarf shrubs increased, driven by increased soil moisture following faster snowmelt. Changes in the semidesert were related to highly variable spring soil moisture. Compositional changes accelerated over time. Mostly palatable species declined in abundance. More competitive unpalatable species replaced abundant (1973) unpalatable species. Mean elevation shifted significantly for 35 species (out of 136), with 60% shifting >100 m, more often upward (low and high elevations) than downward (mid-elevations). These mountain ecosystems seem more sensitive to changing precipitation than temperature- or grazing-induced changes, making climatic change a more important driver than management. Further adaptive management should consider the response of the vegetation to environmental changes and promote alternative land-use options to maintain ecosystem functioning. In mountain ecosystems worldwide, the observed acceleration of changes might go unnoticed, calling for long-term studies and global climate-vegetation-management interaction models.