Charitonidou Martha, Kougioumoutzis Konstantinos, Halley John M
Laboratory of Ecology, Department of Biological Applications and Technology, University of Ioannina, 45110 Ioannina, Greece.
Department of Ecology and Systematics, Faculty of Biology, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, 15784 Athens, Greece.
Plants (Basel). 2021 Mar 2;10(3):470. doi: 10.3390/plants10030470.
Climate change is regarded as one of the most important threats to plants. Already species around the globe are showing considerable latitudinal and altitudinal shifts. Helen's bee orchid (), a Balkan endemic with a distribution center in northwestern Greece, is reported to be expanding east and southwards. Since this southeastern movement goes against the usual expectations, we investigated via Species Distribution Modelling, whether this pattern is consistent with projections based on the species' response to climate change. We predicted the species' future distribution based on three different climate models in two climate scenarios. We also explored the species' potential distribution during the Last Interglacial and the Last Glacial Maximum. is projected to shift mainly southeast and experience considerable area changes. The species is expected to become extinct in the core of its current distribution, but to establish a strong presence in the mid- and high-altitude areas of the Central Peloponnese, a region that could have provided shelter in previous climatic extremes.
气候变化被视为对植物最重要的威胁之一。全球各地的物种已经出现了显著的纬度和海拔迁移。海伦蜜蜂兰（）是巴尔干半岛特有的物种，分布中心在希腊西北部，据报道正在向东和向南扩张。由于这种向东南方向的移动与通常的预期相悖，我们通过物种分布模型研究了这种模式是否与基于该物种对气候变化反应的预测一致。我们在两种气候情景下，基于三种不同的气候模型预测了该物种的未来分布。我们还探索了末次间冰期和末次盛冰期该物种的潜在分布。预计该物种将主要向东南方向迁移，并经历相当大的面积变化。该物种预计将在其当前分布的核心区域灭绝，但会在伯罗奔尼撒半岛中部的中高海拔地区大量出现，该地区在以前的极端气候条件下可能提供了避难所。
