Institute of Geophysics and Geomatics, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, 430074, China; Hubei Key Laboratory of Intelligent Robot, Wuhan Institute of Technology, Wuhan, 430205, China.
Institute of Geophysics and Geomatics, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, 430074, China.
J Environ Manage. 2021 Jul 1;289:112449. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.112449. Epub 2021 Mar 31.
Episodes of frequent flooding continue to increase, often causing serious damage and tools to identify areas affected by such disasters have become indispensable in today's society. Using the latest techniques can make very accurate flood predictions. In this study, we introduce four effective methods to evaluate the flood susceptibility of Poyang County, in China, by integrating two independent models of frequency ratio and index of entropy with multilayer perceptron and classification and regression tree models. The flood locations of the study area were identified through the flood inventory process, and 12 flood conditioning factors were used in the training and validation processes. According to the results of the linear support vector machine, elevation, slope angle, and soil have the highest predictive ability. The experimental results of the four hybrid models demonstrate that between 20% and 50% of the study area has high and very high flood susceptibility. The multilayer perceptron-probability density hybrid model is the most effective among the six comparative methods.
洪涝灾害频发的情况仍在持续增加,往往会造成严重的破坏,因此,在当今社会,用于识别受灾区域的工具已不可或缺。运用最新技术可以实现非常精准的洪涝预测。在本研究中,我们通过整合频率比和熵指数这两种独立模型,并结合多层感知器和分类回归树模型,引入了四种有效方法,以评估中国鄱阳湖地区的洪涝灾害易发性。通过洪涝灾害清单编制过程,确定了研究区域的洪涝灾害位置,并在训练和验证过程中使用了 12 个洪涝灾害影响因素。根据线性支持向量机的结果,海拔、坡度角和土壤具有最高的预测能力。四种混合模型的实验结果表明,研究区域有 20%到 50%的地区具有高和极高的洪涝灾害易发性。在六种比较方法中,多层感知器-概率密度混合模型是最有效的方法。