Kumar Harish, Arora Pawan K, Pant Meena, Kumar Anil, Akhtar Khan Shahroz
National Institute of Technology Delhi, India.
Galgotias College of Engineering and Technology, Gautambudh Nagar, U.P, India.
Mater Today Proc. 2021;47:3859-3864. doi: 10.1016/j.matpr.2021.03.434. Epub 2021 Mar 31.
The new outbreak of the corona virus (Covid-19) is expanding rapidly worldwide, disrupting millions and prompting authorities to take swift measures to avoid the disease. National lockdown imposed by the Indian government since 25 March 2020, the early lockdown action shows as compared to many other Countries/states can benefit from limiting the final size of the epidemic. A report on the issue of spreading the Covid-19 modeling in India is under review. This study analyzes Covid-19 infections by 20Dec 2021 and presents a mathematical approach for forecasting new cases or cumulative cases in practical situations. This forecast is much needed to schedule/continue medical set-ups for possible action to tackle the Covid-19 outbreak. It is important to mention here that the number of authors has proposed different models for predicting the expansion of Covid-19 to India and other countries; almost no model has yet to be demonstrated viable. With this mathematical model, it is simple to forecast the transfer of Covid-19. It is clear from the data that lockdown has played a significant role in controlling the transmission of the disease. A close match between the predicted empirical results and the available results proves the derived model similarity.
新型冠状病毒（新冠病毒-19）的新一轮疫情正在全球迅速蔓延，影响数百万人，并促使各国当局迅速采取措施以避免疫情扩散。自2020年3月25日起印度政府实施全国封锁，与许多其他国家/邦相比，早期的封锁行动表明可以从限制疫情最终规模中受益。一份关于印度新冠病毒-19传播建模问题的报告正在审核中。本研究分析了截至2021年12月20日的新冠病毒-19感染情况，并提出了一种数学方法来预测实际情况下的新增病例或累计病例。这种预测对于安排/继续医疗设施以采取可能行动应对新冠病毒-19疫情非常必要。在此需要提及的是，已有许多作者针对预测新冠病毒-19在印度及其他国家的传播提出了不同模型；但几乎没有一个模型被证明是可行的。利用这个数学模型，可以很容易地预测新冠病毒-19的传播情况。从数据中可以明显看出，封锁在控制疾病传播方面发挥了重要作用。预测的实证结果与现有结果之间的紧密匹配证明了所推导模型的相似性。
