State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, School of the Environment, Nanjing University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China.
Sci Total Environ. 2021 Aug 15;782:146760. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.146760. Epub 2021 Mar 26.
Under the dual effects of climate change and urban heat islands (UHI), non-optimum temperature-related mortality burdens are complex and uncertain, and are rarely discussed in China. In this study, by applying city-specific exposure-response functions to multiple temperature and population projections under different climate and urbanization scenarios, we comprehensively assessed the non-optimum temperature-related mortality burdens in China from 2000 to 2050. Our results showed that temperature-related deaths will decrease from 1.19 million in 2010 to 1.08-1.17 million in 2050, with the exception of the most populous scenario. Excess deaths attributable to non-optimal temperatures under representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) were 2.35% greater than those under RCP4.5. This indicates that the surge in heat-related deaths caused by climate change will be offset by the reduction in cold-related deaths. As the climate changes, high-risk areas will be confronted with more severe health challenges, which requires health protection resource relocation strategies. Simultaneously, the net effects of UHIs are beneficial in the historical periods, preventing 3493 (95% CI: 22-6964) deaths in 2000. But UHIs will cause an additional 6951 (95% CI: -17,637-31,539, SSP4-RCP4.5) to 17,041 (95% CI: -10,516-44,598, SSP5-RCP8.5) deaths in 2050. The heavier health burden in RCP8.5 than RCP4.5 indicates that a warmer climate aggravates the negative effects of UHIs. Considering the synergistic behavior of climate change and UHIs, UHI mitigation strategies should not be developed without considering climate change. Moreover, the mortality burden exhibited strong spatial variations, with heavy burdens concentrated in the hotspots including Beijing-Tianjin Metropolitan Region, Yangtze River Delta, Chengdu-Chongqing City Group, Guangzhou, Wuhan, Xi'an, Shandong, and Henan. These hotspots should be priority areas for the allocation of the national medical resources to provide effective public health interventions.
在中国，气候变化和城市热岛（UHI）的双重影响下，与温度相关的非最佳死亡负担复杂且不确定，很少有人讨论。在这项研究中，我们通过应用特定于城市的暴露-反应函数，根据不同的气候和城市化情景对多个温度和人口进行预测，全面评估了 2000 年至 2050 年中国与非最佳温度相关的死亡负担。我们的研究结果表明，与温度相关的死亡人数将从 2010 年的 119 万减少到 2050 年的 108-117 万，除了人口最多的情景。在代表性浓度路径 8.5（RCP8.5）下，归因于非最佳温度的超额死亡人数比在 RCP4.5 下多 2.35%。这表明，气候变化引起的热相关死亡人数的增加将被冷相关死亡人数的减少所抵消。随着气候的变化，高风险地区将面临更严峻的健康挑战，这需要重新配置卫生保护资源。同时，在历史时期，城市热岛的净效应是有益的，在 2000 年防止了 3493 人（95%CI：22-6964）死亡。但是，城市热岛将在 2050 年造成额外的 6951 人（95%CI：-17，637-31，539，SSP4-RCP4.5）至 17041 人（95%CI：-10，516-44，598，SSP5-RCP8.5）死亡。RCP8.5 中比 RCP4.5 更重的健康负担表明，更温暖的气候会加剧城市热岛的负面影响。考虑到气候变化和城市热岛的协同作用，如果不考虑气候变化，就不应该制定城市热岛缓解策略。此外，死亡率负担表现出强烈的空间变化，负担沉重的热点集中在北京-天津都市圈、长江三角洲、成渝城市群、广州、武汉、西安、山东和河南等地。这些热点应该是国家医疗资源分配的优先领域，以提供有效的公共卫生干预措施。
