Wang Si, Mu Lin, Qi Mengnan, Yu Zekun, Yao Zhenfeng, Zhao Enjin
Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Guangzhou), Guangzhou, 511458, China; College of Life Sciences and Oceanography, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen, 518060, China; Hubei Key Laboratory of Marine Geological Resources/College of Marine Science and Technology, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, 430074, China.
Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Guangzhou), Guangzhou, 511458, China; College of Life Sciences and Oceanography, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen, 518060, China.
J Environ Manage. 2021 Jul 1;289:112514. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.112514. Epub 2021 Apr 8.
Storm surge is a natural disaster, often causing economic damage and loss of human life in the coastal communities. In recent decades, with more people attracted to coastal areas, the potential economic losses resulted from storm surges are increasing. Therefore, it is important to make risk assessments to identify areas at risk and design risk reduction strategies. However, the quantitative risk assessment of storm surge for coastal cities in China is often difficult due to the lack of adequate data regarding the building footprint and vulnerability curves. This paper aims to provide a methodology for conducting the quantitative risk assessment of storm surge, estimating direct tangible damage, by using Geographical Information System (GIS) techniques and open data. The proposed methodology was applied to a coastal area with a high concentration of petroleum industries in the Daya Bay zone. At first, five individual typhoon scenarios with different return periods (1000, 100, 50, 20, and 10 years) were defined. Then, the Advanced Circulation model and the Simulating Waves Nearshore model were utilized to simulate storm surge. The model outputs were imported into GIS software, transformed into inundation area and inundation depth. Subsequently, the building footprint data were extracted by the use of GIS techniques, including spatial analysis and image analysis. The layer containing building footprints was superimposed on the inundation area layer to identify and quantify the exposed elements to storm surge hazard. Combining the exposed elements with their related depth-damage functions, the quantitative risk assessment translates the spatial extent and depth of storm surge into the estimation of economic losses. The quantitative risk assessment and zonation maps for sub-zones in the study area can help local decision-makers to prioritize the sub-zones that are more likely to be affected by storm surge, make risk mitigation strategies, and develop long-term urban plans.
风暴潮是一种自然灾害，经常在沿海社区造成经济损失和人员伤亡。近几十年来，随着越来越多的人被吸引到沿海地区，风暴潮造成的潜在经济损失不断增加。因此，进行风险评估以识别风险区域并设计风险降低策略非常重要。然而，由于缺乏关于建筑物占地面积和脆弱性曲线的足够数据，中国沿海城市风暴潮的定量风险评估往往很困难。本文旨在提供一种利用地理信息系统（GIS）技术和开放数据进行风暴潮定量风险评估、估计直接有形损失的方法。所提出的方法应用于大亚湾地区石油工业高度集中的沿海区域。首先，定义了五个不同重现期（1000年、100年、50年、20年和10年）的单个台风情景。然后，利用高级环流模型和近岸海浪模拟模型来模拟风暴潮。将模型输出导入GIS软件，转换为淹没面积和淹没深度。随后，利用GIS技术，包括空间分析和图像分析，提取建筑物占地面积数据。将包含建筑物占地面积的图层叠加在淹没区域图层上，以识别和量化暴露于风暴潮危害的元素。将暴露元素与其相关的深度-损失函数相结合，定量风险评估将风暴潮的空间范围和深度转化为经济损失估计。研究区域子区域的定量风险评估和分区地图可以帮助当地决策者确定更可能受到风暴潮影响的子区域的优先级，制定风险缓解策略，并制定长期城市规划。
