Yin Kedong, Zhao Yufeng, Zhou Shiwei, Li Xuemei
Institute of Marine Development, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China; School of Management Science and Engineering, Shandong University of Finance and Economics, Jinan 250014, China; Institute of Marine Economics and Management, Shandong University of Finance and Economics, Jinan 250014, China.
Institute of Marine Development, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China; School of Management, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China.
Sci Total Environ. 2024 Nov 15;951:175526. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.175526. Epub 2024 Aug 17.
Storm surge disasters have caused devastating losses to coastal areas, making disaster prevention and mitigation capacity (DPMC) critical in promoting high-quality and sustainable economic development. In this paper, the systematic construction of a comprehensive index of storm surge disaster losses (SSDLs) and DPMC in China is described respectively. Then, panel fixed effect and threshold models are established to explore the relationship between SSDLs and economic growth, in particular, the moderating effect of DPMC. Our results reveal that, from 2006 to 2019, SSDLs exhibit an inverted N-shaped trend, with losses gradually decreasing from south to north. DPMC has been increasing but has visible spatial differences. Notably, SSDLs have a significant negative impact on economic development in China's coastal areas, however, DPMC can play an effective role in mitigating and regulating these negative shocks. With the continuous improvement of China's disaster prevention and mitigation system, SSDLs can be largely offset. Heterogeneity analysis shows that DPMC is most effective in the sample with a high SSDL, low DPMC, and in the southern marine economic circle in China. Further, the robustness tests are ensured by replacing measurement method, replacing GDP per capita with night-time lighting data, and replacing econometric models. Importantly, our study highlights the crucial non-linear role of DPMC in reducing the losses caused by storm surge disasters and promoting sustainable economic development. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers to improve capacity building and subjectivity, regional cooperation and ensure the economic resilience of coastal areas in the face of storm surge disasters.
风暴潮灾害给沿海地区造成了毁灭性损失，使得防灾减灾能力对于促进高质量和可持续经济发展至关重要。本文分别阐述了中国风暴潮灾害损失综合指数和防灾减灾能力的系统构建。然后，建立面板固定效应模型和门槛模型，以探究风暴潮灾害损失与经济增长之间的关系，特别是防灾减灾能力的调节作用。我们的研究结果表明，2006年至2019年期间，风暴潮灾害损失呈倒N形趋势，损失从南向北逐渐减少。防灾减灾能力一直在增强，但存在明显的空间差异。值得注意的是，风暴潮灾害损失对中国沿海地区的经济发展有显著负面影响，然而，防灾减灾能力可以在减轻和调节这些负面冲击方面发挥有效作用。随着中国防灾减灾体系的不断完善，风暴潮灾害损失可在很大程度上得到抵消。异质性分析表明，防灾减灾能力在风暴潮灾害损失高、防灾减灾能力低的样本以及中国南部海洋经济圈中最为有效。此外，通过更换测量方法、用夜间灯光数据替代人均国内生产总值以及更换计量模型来确保稳健性检验。重要的是，我们的研究突出了防灾减灾能力在减少风暴潮灾害造成的损失和促进可持续经济发展方面的关键非线性作用。这些研究结果为政策制定者提高能力建设和主体性、开展区域合作以及确保沿海地区面对风暴潮灾害时的经济韧性提供了有价值的见解。
