Ogega Obed Matundura, Alobo Moses
Programmes, The African Academy of Sciences, Nairobi, Kenya.
School of Environmental Studies, Kenyatta University, Nairobi, Kenya.
AAS Open Res. 2021 Mar 15;3:22. doi: 10.12688/aasopenres.13074.3. eCollection 2020.
Malaria remains a global challenge with approximately 228 million cases and 405,000 malaria-related deaths reported in 2018 alone; 93% of which were in sub-Saharan Africa. Aware of the critical role than environmental factors play in malaria transmission, this study aimed at assessing the relationship between precipitation, temperature, and clinical malaria cases in East Africa and how the relationship may change under 1.5 C and 2.0 C global warming levels (hereinafter GWL1.5 and GWL2.0, respectively). A correlation analysis was done to establish the current relationship between annual precipitation, mean temperature, and clinical malaria cases. Differences between annual precipitation and mean temperature value projections for periods 2008-2037 and 2023-2052 (corresponding to GWL1.5 and GWL2.0, respectively), relative to the control period (1977-2005), were computed to determine how malaria transmission may change under the two global warming scenarios. : A predominantly positive/negative correlation between clinical malaria cases and temperature/precipitation was observed. Relative to the control period, no major significant changes in precipitation were shown in both warming scenarios. However, an increase in temperature of between 0.5 C and 1.5 C and 1.0 C to 2.0 C under GWL1.5 and GWL2.0, respectively, was recorded. Hence, more areas in East Africa are likely to be exposed to temperature thresholds favourable for increased malaria vector abundance and, hence, potentially intensify malaria transmission in the region. : GWL1.5 and GWL2.0 scenarios are likely to intensify malaria transmission in East Africa. Ongoing interventions should, therefore, be intensified to sustain the gains made towards malaria elimination in East Africa in a warming climate.
疟疾仍然是一项全球性挑战，仅在2018年就报告了约2.28亿例病例和40.5万例与疟疾相关的死亡；其中93%发生在撒哈拉以南非洲。鉴于环境因素在疟疾传播中发挥的关键作用，本研究旨在评估东非地区降水、温度与临床疟疾病例之间的关系，以及在全球变暖1.5摄氏度和2.0摄氏度水平（以下分别简称GWL1.5和GWL2.0）下这种关系可能如何变化。进行了相关性分析，以确定年降水量、平均温度与临床疟疾病例之间的当前关系。计算了2008 - 2037年和2023 - 2052年（分别对应GWL1.5和GWL2.0）相对于对照期（1977 - 2005年）的年降水量和平均温度值预测差异，以确定在两种全球变暖情景下疟疾传播可能如何变化。观察到临床疟疾病例与温度/降水之间主要呈正/负相关。相对于对照期，在两种变暖情景下降水量均未显示出重大显著变化。然而，分别记录到在GWL1.5和GWL2.0下温度升高了0.5摄氏度至1.5摄氏度和1.0摄氏度至2.0摄氏度。因此，东非更多地区可能会面临有利于增加疟蚊数量的温度阈值，从而可能加剧该地区的疟疾传播。GWL1.5和GWL2.0情景可能会加剧东非的疟疾传播。因此，应加强正在进行的干预措施，以在气候变暖的情况下维持东非在消除疟疾方面取得的成果。
