State Key Laboratory of Grassland Agro-Ecosystem, Institute of Innovation Ecology & School of Life Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China.
College of Life Science, Yunnan University, Kunming650500, China.
Epidemiol Infect. 2021 Apr 13;149:e94. doi: 10.1017/S0950268821000777.
The global outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is greatly threatening the public health in the world. We reconstructed global transmissions and potential demographic expansions of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 based on genomic information. We found that intercontinental transmissions were rare in January and early February but drastically increased since late February. After world-wide implements of travel restrictions, the transmission frequencies decreased to a low level in April. We identified a total of 88 potential demographic expansions over the world based on the star-radiative networks and 75 of them were found in Europe and North America. The expansion numbers peaked in March and quickly dropped since April. These findings are highly concordant with epidemic reports and modelling results and highlight the significance of quarantine validity on the global spread of COVID-19. Our analyses indicate that the travel restrictions and social distancing measures are effective in containing the spread of COVID-19.
2019 年冠状病毒病（COVID-19）在全球范围内的爆发，对世界公共卫生造成了极大威胁。我们基于基因组信息，重建了严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒 2 的全球传播和潜在的人口扩张情况。我们发现，1 月和 2 月初的洲际传播很少，但自 2 月下旬以来急剧增加。在全球范围内实施旅行限制后，4 月份的传播频率降至较低水平。我们通过星状辐射网络总共确定了全球 88 个潜在的人口扩张，其中 75 个在欧洲和北美。扩张数量在 3 月达到峰值，自 4 月以来迅速下降。这些发现与流行报告和建模结果高度一致，突出了检疫有效性在 COVID-19 全球传播中的重要性。我们的分析表明，旅行限制和社会距离措施在遏制 COVID-19 的传播方面是有效的。
