Juraj Dobrila University, Pula, Croatia.
Lithuanian Energy Institute, Kaunas, Lithuania.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2021 Aug;28(32):44505-44521. doi: 10.1007/s11356-021-13636-9. Epub 2021 Apr 14.
The study of the link between production, measured in gross domestic product and CO emissions, is a topic under intense research. Carbon emissions are moving together with economic shocks (high synchronicity), particularly at troughs and peaks of a business cycle. This research investigates the influence of economic shocks to carbon emissions. Previous studies do not provide a direct empirical evidence on the impact of economic shocks to carbon emissions that are available. We employ structural vector autoregression to explore the impact of economic shocks on carbon emissions in 20 advanced economies from 1870 to 2016. Our empirical results prove a strong, statistically significant connection between emissions and output with a coefficient of elasticity > 1. We identify a strong empirical link using panel structural vector autoregression between carbon emissions and real GDP growth per capita. Up to 40% of the fluctuations in CO emissions is explained by combined economic factors (output, population, oil prices, stock exchange). The findings further indicate that carbon emission is determined by energy policy (energy intensity, carbon intensity, relative costs of renewable energy). Our findings contribute to energy policy management, energy, and business cycle research to inspire novel research on energy cycles.
研究国内生产总值（GDP）衡量的生产与二氧化碳排放之间的联系是一个备受关注的课题。碳排放与经济冲击（高度同步）密切相关，尤其是在商业周期的低谷和高峰时期。本研究调查了经济冲击对碳排放的影响。以往的研究并没有提供关于经济冲击对可用的碳排放影响的直接经验证据。我们采用结构向量自回归模型，探讨了 1870 年至 2016 年间 20 个发达经济体经济冲击对碳排放的影响。我们的实证结果证明了排放与产出之间存在很强的、具有统计学意义的联系，弹性系数>1。我们使用面板结构向量自回归模型，在人均实际 GDP 增长和碳排放量之间建立了一个强有力的经验联系。CO 排放波动的 40%可以用综合经济因素（产出、人口、石油价格、股票市场）来解释。研究结果进一步表明，碳排放取决于能源政策（能源强度、碳强度、可再生能源的相对成本）。我们的研究结果有助于能源政策管理、能源和商业周期研究，为能源周期的新研究提供了启示。
