School of Information Science and Technology, Yunnan Normal University, Kunming, 650500, China; GIS Technology Engineering Research Centre for West-China Resources and Environment of Educational Ministry, Yunnan Normal University, Kunming, 650500, China.
GIS Technology Engineering Research Centre for West-China Resources and Environment of Educational Ministry, Yunnan Normal University, Kunming, 650500, China; Faculty Of Geography, Yunnan Normal University, Kunming, 650500, China.
Int J Infect Dis. 2021 May;106:386-394. doi: 10.1016/j.ijid.2021.04.030. Epub 2021 Apr 12.
From 2013 to 2017, the avian influenza A (H7N9) virus frequently infected people in China, which seriously affected the public health of society. This study aimed to analyze the spatial characteristics of human infection with the H7N9 virus in China and assess the risk areas of the epidemic.
Using kernel density estimation, standard deviation ellipse analysis, spatial and temporal scanning cluster analysis, and Pearson correlation analysis, the spatial characteristics and possible risk factors of the epidemic were studied. Meteorological factors, time (month), and environmental factors were combined to establish an epidemic risk assessment proxy model to assess the risk range of an epidemic.
The epidemic situation was significantly correlated with atmospheric pressure, temperature, and daily precipitation (P < 0.05), and there were six temporal and spatial clusters. The fitting accuracy of the epidemic risk assessment agent-based model for lower-risk, low-risk, medium-risk, and high-risk was 0.795, 0.672, 0.853, 0.825, respectively.
This H7N9 epidemic was found to have more outbreaks in winter and spring. It gradually spread to the inland areas of China. This model reflects the risk areas of human infection with the H7N9 virus.
2013 年至 2017 年期间，甲型 H7N9 禽流感病毒在中国频繁感染人群，严重影响了社会公众健康。本研究旨在分析中国人群感染 H7N9 病毒的空间特征，并评估疫情的风险区域。
运用核密度估计、标准差椭圆分析、时空扫描聚类分析和 Pearson 相关性分析，研究疫情的空间特征及可能的危险因素。结合气象因素、时间（月份）和环境因素，建立疫情风险评估代理模型，评估疫情的风险范围。
疫情与大气压、温度和日降水量显著相关（P<0.05），存在 6 个时空聚类。基于主体的疫情风险评估代理模型对低风险、低中风险、中高风险和高风险的拟合准确率分别为 0.795、0.672、0.853、0.825。
本研究发现 H7N9 疫情多发于冬春季，且逐渐向中国内陆地区蔓延。该模型反映了人感染 H7N9 病毒的风险区域。
