伊斯坦布尔新冠疫情期间的超额死亡率。
Excess Mortality During COVID-19 Pandemic in İstanbul.
作者信息
Musellim Benan, Kul Seval, Ay Pınar, Küçük Filiz Çağla Uyanusta, Dağlı Elif, Itil Oya, Bayram Hasan
机构信息
Turkish Thoracic Society, COVID-19 Task Force, İstanbul, Turkey.
Department of Biostatistics and Medical Informatics, Gaziantep University School of Medicine, Gaziantep, Turkey.
出版信息
Turk Thorac J. 2021 Mar;22(2):137-141. doi: 10.5152/TurkThoracJ.2021.20258. Epub 2021 Mar 1.
OBJECTIVE
Epidemiological studies have shown that mortality owing to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) could be under-reported under different conditions. Excess mortality analysis is suggested as a useful tool in estimating the impact of the disease.
MATERIAL AND METHODS
Mortality data between January 01 and May 18, 2020, were analyzed to evaluate the excess mortality owing to COVID-19 in Istanbul, the city most affected by the pandemic in Turkey. The average weekly percentage changes in the number of deaths in 4 previous years were compared with those in the year 2020 using excess mortality analysis.
RESULTS
The number of deaths in Istanbul was significantly higher in 2020 (p=0.001), with a 10% weekly increase between the 10th and 15th weeks, which started to decrease until the 20th week. The excess mortality found during the study period was 4,084 deaths, higher than the officially reported COVID-19 mortality.
CONCLUSION
Our findings demonstrated that mortality owing to COVID-19 could be higher than the official figures reported by health authorities.
目的
流行病学研究表明，在不同情况下，2019冠状病毒病（COVID-19）导致的死亡率可能被低估。建议采用超额死亡率分析作为评估该疾病影响的有用工具。
材料与方法
分析了2020年1月1日至5月18日期间的死亡率数据，以评估土耳其受疫情影响最严重的城市伊斯坦布尔因COVID-19导致的超额死亡率。使用超额死亡率分析，将前4年每周死亡人数的平均百分比变化与2020年的进行比较。
结果
2020年伊斯坦布尔的死亡人数显著更高（p = 0.001），在第10周和第15周之间每周增加10%，到第20周开始下降。研究期间发现的超额死亡率为4084人死亡，高于官方报告的COVID-19死亡率。
结论
我们的研究结果表明，COVID-19导致的死亡率可能高于卫生当局报告的官方数字。
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