Otten Wilfred, Bailey Douglas J, Gilligan Christopher A
Epidemiology and Modelling Group, Department of Plant Sciences, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge CB2 3EA, UK.
Current address: INRA-Bordeaux, UMR Sante Vegetale, BP81, 33883 Villenave d'Ornon, France.
New Phytol. 2004 Jul;163(1):125-132. doi: 10.1111/j.1469-8137.2004.01086.x.
• The ability to forecast invasion of harmful and beneficial organisms is becoming increasingly important in agricultural and horticultural production systems as well as in natural plant communities. • In this paper we examine the spread of a fungus through a population of discrete sites on a lattice, using replicable, yet stochastically variable experimental microcosms. • We combine epidemiological concepts to summarise fungal growth dynamics with percolation theory to derive and test the following hypotheses: first fungal invasion into a population of susceptible sites on a lattice can be stopped by a threshold proportion of randomly removed sites; second random removal of susceptible sites from a population introduces a shield which can prevent invasion of unprotected sites; and third the rate at which a susceptible population is invaded reduces with increasing number of randomly protected sites. • The broader consequences of thresholds for fungal invasion in natural and agricultural systems are discussed briefly.
• 在农业和园艺生产系统以及自然植物群落中，预测有害生物和有益生物入侵的能力正变得越来越重要。
• 在本文中，我们使用可复制但具有随机变异性的实验微观世界，研究了一种真菌在晶格上离散位点群体中的传播情况。
• 我们结合流行病学概念来总结真菌生长动态，并运用渗流理论来推导和检验以下假设：其一，真菌侵入晶格上易感位点群体的过程可被随机去除的位点的阈值比例所阻止；其二，从群体中随机去除易感位点会引入一个屏障，可防止未受保护的位点被入侵；其三，易感群体被入侵的速率会随着随机保护位点数量的增加而降低。
• 简要讨论了自然和农业系统中真菌入侵阈值的更广泛影响。
