Department of Computer Science and Applied Mathematics, Weizmann Institute of Science, Rehovot, Israel.
Department of Molecular Cell Biology, Weizmann Institute of Science, Rehovot, Israel.
Nat Med. 2021 Jun;27(6):1055-1061. doi: 10.1038/s41591-021-01337-2. Epub 2021 Apr 19.
Studies on the real-life effect of the BNT162b2 vaccine for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) prevention are urgently needed. In this study, we conducted a retrospective analysis of data from the Israeli Ministry of Health collected between 28 August 2020 and 24 February 2021. We studied the temporal dynamics of the number of new COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations after the vaccination campaign, which was initiated on 20 December 2020. To distinguish the possible effects of the vaccination on cases and hospitalizations from other factors, including a third lockdown implemented on 8 January 2021, we performed several comparisons: (1) individuals aged 60 years and older prioritized to receive the vaccine first versus younger age groups; (2) the January lockdown versus the September lockdown; and (3) early-vaccinated versus late-vaccinated cities. A larger and earlier decrease in COVID-19 cases and hospitalization was observed in individuals older than 60 years, followed by younger age groups, by the order of vaccination prioritization. This pattern was not observed in the previous lockdown and was more pronounced in early-vaccinated cities. Our analysis demonstrates the real-life effect of a national vaccination campaign on the pandemic dynamics.
关于预防 2019 年冠状病毒病(COVID-19)的 BNT162b2 疫苗的真实效果的研究迫在眉睫。在本研究中,我们对以色列卫生部在 2020 年 8 月 28 日至 2021 年 2 月 24 日期间收集的数据进行了回顾性分析。我们研究了疫苗接种运动开始于 2020 年 12 月 20 日之后,新的 COVID-19 病例和住院人数的时间动态。为了将疫苗接种对病例和住院的可能影响与包括 2021 年 1 月 8 日实施的第三次封锁在内的其他因素区分开来,我们进行了几项比较:(1)优先接种疫苗的 60 岁及以上人群与年轻人群;(2)1 月封锁与 9 月封锁;(3)早期接种疫苗的城市与晚期接种疫苗的城市。在优先接种疫苗的人群中,年龄大于 60 岁的人群观察到 COVID-19 病例和住院人数的下降幅度更大、更早,随后是年轻人群,这与接种疫苗的优先顺序一致。这种模式在之前的封锁中没有观察到,在早期接种疫苗的城市中更为明显。我们的分析表明,全国性疫苗接种运动对大流行动态具有真实效果。