School of Engineering and Technology, China University of Geosciences (Beijing), Beijing, 100083, China.
School of Geological Engineering and Geomatics, Chang'an University, Xi'an, 710054, China.
Sci Rep. 2021 Apr 23;11(1):8841. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-87995-1.
Earth fissures caused by tectonic forces, human activities, or both seriously threaten the safety of people's lives and properties. The Taiyuan Basin, a Cenozoic downfaulted basin located in the centre of the Fen-Wei Basin tectonic belt, in northwestern China, presents the ideal study area for a hazard assessment of earth fissures. A total of 104 earth fissures have been observed in the Taiyuan Basin, with a total length of approximately 128 km. In this paper, we proposed a probabilistic method for mapping earth fissure hazards by integrating the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), the area under the curve (AUC), and the certainty factor model (CFM). Geomorphic units, geologic formations, active faults and land subsidence zones of the Taiyuan Basin were mapped in detail. Correlations between these factors and earth fissures were evaluated through spatial modelling in ArcGIS. The AUC was introduced into the AHP to weight each factor and thus, to derive an earth fissure susceptibility map. Finally, the modelled earth fissure susceptibility was compared with a digital inventory of earth fissures to develop a probability function and map the spatial variability in failure probability through the CFM. The study indicates that active faults have the greatest contribution to the generation of earth fissures. Earth fissures are prone to develop in the piedmont alluvial-diluvial clinoplain and the transitional zone near the geomorphic boundary. This mapping procedure can assist in making rational decisions regarding urban planning and infrastructure development in areas susceptible to earth fissures.
由于构造力、人类活动或两者共同作用而导致的地裂缝严重威胁着人们的生命和财产安全。太原盆地是位于中国西北部汾渭盆地构造带中心的新生代断陷盆地，是评估地裂缝灾害的理想研究区。在太原盆地共观测到 104 条地裂缝，总长度约为 128 公里。本文提出了一种基于层次分析法（AHP）、曲线下面积（AUC）和确定性因子模型（CFM）的概率制图方法，用于评估地裂缝灾害。详细绘制了太原盆地的地貌单元、地质地层、活动断层和地面沉降带。通过在 ArcGIS 中进行空间建模，评估了这些因素与地裂缝之间的相关性。将 AUC 引入 AHP 中，对每个因素进行加权，从而得出地裂缝易发性图。最后，将模型化的地裂缝易发性与地裂缝数字清单进行比较，通过 CFM 绘制失效概率的空间变异性图。研究表明，活动断层对地裂缝的形成贡献最大。地裂缝容易在山前冲积洪积平原和地貌边界附近的过渡带发育。该制图程序可以协助在易发生地裂缝的地区做出合理的城市规划和基础设施开发决策。
