Predicting the mandibular growth spurt.

OBJECTIVES

To develop a prediction model that combined information derived from chronological age, sex, and the cervical vertebral maturation (CVM) method to predict the pubertal spurt in mandibular growth.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A total of 50 subjects (29 females, 21 males) were selected from the American Association of Orthodontists Foundation Craniofacial Growth Legacy Collection, the University of Michigan Growth Study, and the Denver Child Growth study. A total of 456 lateral cephalograms were analyzed, and a multilevel logistic model was applied. The outcome variable was the presence or absence of the mandibular pubertal growth peak. The predictive variables were chronological age up to the third order, sex, presence or absence of CS 3 interactions between age and sex, age and CS 3, sex and CS 3.

RESULTS

The mean age ± standard deviation (SD) at the first cephalogram was 8.2 ± 0.5 years, whereas the mean age at the last cephalogram was 16.5 ± 1.1 years. The mean interval ± SD between two consecutive cephalograms was 1.0 ± 0.1 years. The mean age ± SD at the lateral cephalogram obtained immediately before the mandibular pubertal growth peak was 12.1 ± 1.1 years for females and 13.2 ± 0.8 years for males. The greatest increase in mandibular length occurred after CS 3 in 78% of the subjects. The presence of CS 3, age, second-order age, sex, and the interaction between age and sex were all statistically significant predictors of the mandibular pubertal growth spurt.

CONCLUSIONS

CS 3, chronological age, and sex can be used jointly to predict the pubertal peak in mandibular growth.