Melyantono Serli Eka, Susetya Heru, Widayani Prima, Tenaya I Wayan Masa, Hartawan Dinar Hadi Wahyu
Disease Investigation Centre of Denpasar, Denpasar, Indonesia.
Department of Epidemiology and Veterinary Public Health, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Gadjah Mada University, Yogyakarta, Indonesia.
Vet World. 2021 Mar;14(3):614-624. doi: 10.14202/vetworld.2021.614-624. Epub 2021 Mar 11.
Rabies is a severe progressive encephalitis disease in dogs characterized as a zoonosis. The transmission of rabies between animals in Karangasem District, Bali is still high and continues until today; therefore, rabies in the district still actively circulating. The distribution pattern of rabies, especially in the district, is unknown. This research aimed to describe the spatial distribution of rabies in Karangasem District. The information would help in developing effective control strategies for the disease.
An observational study was carried out using 38 positive rabies cases confirmed by the direct fluorescent antibody test diagnosed at the Disease Investigation Centre of Denpasar from September 2018 to September 2019. The Global Positioning System was used to take the geographical coordinates of the places where positive rabies cases had been confirmed in Karangasem District. The ArcGIS version 10.3 (ESRI) was used to determine and analyze the distribution pattern using the average nearest neighbor (ANN) method.
On the basis of the ANN analysis, the rabies distribution pattern in Karangasem District in 2019 was clustered in groups but not significant (Z-score=-1.670309 [<-1.65], p=0.094858 [<0.1]; nearest neighbor ratio=0.858364). The rabies distribution pattern in each subdistrict of Karangasem was dispersed significantly since it had z-score of more than 2.58, p-value less than 0.1 and nearest neighbor ratio of more than 1.
The rabies distribution in Karangasem District had a clustered pattern, although this was not significant. The grouping of rabies in Karangasem District showed a significant dispersed pattern in the subdistricts Abang, Bebandem, and Karangasem. The dispersed pattern of the rabies cases in the subdistricts was caused by unidentified stray dogs that lived in rice fields and other fields and by the whole district's hilly and mountainous topography. The ANN analysis suggested that for rabies control in Karangasem District, vaccination, elimination, and sterilization of stray dogs should be conducted in densely populated areas.
狂犬病是犬类一种严重的进行性脑炎疾病，属于人畜共患病。巴厘岛卡朗阿森地区动物间狂犬病传播率仍然很高且持续至今，因此该地区狂犬病仍在活跃传播。狂犬病的分布模式，尤其是在该地区的分布模式尚不清楚。本研究旨在描述卡朗阿森地区狂犬病的空间分布。该信息将有助于制定针对该疾病的有效控制策略。
采用观察性研究，研究对象为2018年9月至2019年9月在登巴萨疾病调查中心通过直接荧光抗体试验确诊的38例狂犬病阳性病例。利用全球定位系统获取卡朗阿森地区确诊狂犬病阳性病例地点的地理坐标。使用ArcGIS 10.3版本（ESRI），采用平均最近邻（ANN）方法确定并分析分布模式。
基于ANN分析，2019年卡朗阿森地区狂犬病分布模式呈聚集状但不显著（Z值=-1.670309[<-1.65]，p=0.094858[<0.1]；最近邻比率=0.858364）。卡朗阿森每个分区的狂犬病分布模式显著分散，因为其Z值大于2.58，p值小于0.1，最近邻比率大于1。
卡朗阿森地区狂犬病分布呈聚集模式，尽管不显著。卡朗阿森地区狂犬病的聚集在阿邦、贝班丹和卡朗阿森分区呈显著分散模式。分区内狂犬病病例的分散模式是由生活在稻田和其他田地中的身份不明的流浪狗以及整个地区的丘陵和山地地形造成的。ANN分析表明，对于卡朗阿森地区的狂犬病控制，应在人口密集地区对流浪狗进行疫苗接种、捕杀和绝育。
