Flores Martínez Iván, Phillips Matthew
Public Policy Program, UNCC, Charlotte, NC USA.
Department of Criminal Justice and Criminology, UNCC, Charlotte, NC USA.
Trends Organ Crime. 2022;25(1):58-83. doi: 10.1007/s12117-021-09410-5. Epub 2021 Apr 27.
Research on 'the War on Drugs' in Mexico finds that military interventions increase lethal violence in the country. However, these studies fail to account for other processes that may be driving the behavior of lethal violence in the Mexican municipalities. We find confirmation that these rival processes influence the relative impact that military interventions have on lethal violence. In particular, we find that seasonality in violence, competition for scarce resources and PAN's governance in the municipalities are associated with higher levels of lethal violence, as measured by the young male homicide rate. We argue that the literature may have overestimated the effect that military interventions have in lethal violence in municipalities and that other drivers of violence should be taken into account to accurately measure the impact that military interventions have on lethal violence.
对墨西哥“毒品战争”的研究发现，军事干预增加了该国的致命暴力。然而，这些研究没有考虑到其他可能推动墨西哥各市致命暴力行为的因素。我们证实，这些相互竞争的因素影响着军事干预对致命暴力的相对影响。特别是，我们发现，暴力的季节性、对稀缺资源的竞争以及各市的国家行动党治理，与以年轻男性凶杀率衡量的更高水平的致命暴力有关。我们认为，文献可能高估了军事干预对各市致命暴力的影响，为了准确衡量军事干预对致命暴力的影响，应该考虑其他暴力驱动因素。
